PomegraCopper Falls to $6.50 as Rate-Hike Bets Meet Tariff Delay
Why is copper down today?
Copper (HG=F) fell 1.6% to $6.50 a pound on Thursday as stronger US inflation lifted rate-hike bets, while Trump's refined copper tariff decision remains pending and US stockpiles exceed 1 million tonnes.
Key numbers
| US copper stocks | 1M+ tonnesMacquarie puts total at about 1.6M incl. off-exchange |
|---|---|
| Comex warehouse stocks | 714,000 t+750% since Feb 2025 |
| Comex price gap over London | $310/tfrom above $3,000 in July 2025 |
| Copper price | $6.50/lb-1.6% today (per [3]) |
| Proposed refined copper tariff | 15% then 30%Jan 2027, then Jan 2028 |
What happened
Copper (HG=F) fell 1.6% to $6.50 a pound on Thursday as stronger US inflation lifted rate-hike bets, while Trump's refined copper tariff decision remains pending and US stockpiles exceed 1 million tonnes. The Commerce Department has recommended a 15% tax on imported refined copper from 1 January 2027, rising to 30% in 2028, but nothing has been announced. Fear of that tax pulled metal into warehouses tied to Comex, the main US copper exchange, where stocks are up about 750% since February 2025. The price gap that paid traders to ship copper to America has shrunk to about $310 a tonne from above $3,000.
Why it matters
Copper matters here because it goes into wiring, cars, homes and power grids, so a 15% import tax could raise costs for US buyers. The stockpile race already pushed Comex copper to a record $6.83 a pound on 22 September. With the price gap now small, traders have less reason to keep shipping metal in, and bank Macquarie thinks 1 January could pass with no announcement at all.
Who this affects
- MarketmixedMedium impact
- Copper traders face uncertainty; price is 5% below record.
- CompanybearishLow impact
- Traders holding stockpiled US copper earn less as the price gap shrinks.
- CompetitorsneutralLow impact
- Non-US buyers face tighter visible supply; US holds about 70%.
- IndustrybearishMedium impact
- US copper users could face a 15% cost rise from 2027.
Comex copper stocks vs LME US warehouses, combined stocks
| Comex warehouses (US)HG=F | ~714,000 | +750% since Feb 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| LME warehouses in New Orleans and Baltimore— | ~130,000 | +44% since mid-Aug |
| Comex, Shanghai and LME combined— | >1,000,000 | — |
As of 2026-10-14
How we got here
Commerce Department report on US copper market due ahead of Trump's tariff decision
Comex copper hits record $6.83 a pound ($15,057 a tonne)
No tariff decision announced; Comex price gap over London down to about $310 a tonne
What to watch
- Any White House decision on the 15% refined copper tariff before its proposed start2027-01-01
- Whether the Comex-London price gap re-widens and restarts metal shipments into the USQ4 2026
- Whether Comex warehouse stocks keep climbing from about 714,000 tonnesQ4 2026
Educational content only. Not investment advice.
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