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Gold Drops to $4,100 as Rate-Hike Odds Climb

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics2 min read7 sources

Why is gold down today?

Gold (XAU/USD) fell about 1.5% to near $4,100 an ounce on Wednesday as hotter US inflation lifted Federal Reserve rate-hike odds, marking its third straight daily loss.

Key numbers

Gold~$4,100-1.5% vs Oct 13 close of $4,160.80
Silver<$56-5.5% on the day, lowest since July
US inflation (Sept)3.7%vs 3.6% expected, 3.4% in Aug
Odds of Oct Fed hike~43%from 22% before CPI
10-year Treasury yield~5.2%near multi-year highs

What happened

Gold (XAU/USD) fell about 1.5% to near $4,100 an ounce on Wednesday as hotter US inflation lifted Federal Reserve rate-hike odds, marking its third straight daily loss. Silver fell harder, dropping as much as 5.5% to below $56, its lowest price since July. The government said prices rose 3.7% in September compared with a year earlier, above the 3.6% experts expected, with gasoline up 9.1% in one month. Traders now see about a 43% chance the Fed raises rates on 28 October, up from 22% before the report.

Why it matters

Gold loses appeal when interest rates rise, because it pays no income while savings accounts and bonds pay more. Fuel-driven inflation is pushing the Fed toward another rate increase, and traders already see roughly a 90% chance of one by December. Gold now sits about 4% above its 2026 low of $3,942, and silver is close to its own low of $54.77.

Who this affects

Marketbearish
Medium impact
Gold and silver holders face losses as hike bets grow.
Companybearish
Medium impact
Gold owners lose value; interest-bearing savings look more attractive.
Competitorsbearish
High impact
Silver falls harder than gold, down over 5%.
Industrymixed
Low impact
Industrial silver buyers may see cheaper metal; miners lose.

Gold vs Silver, Platinum, Palladium

GoldXAU/USD~$4,100-1.5%$3,942
SilverXAG/USD<$56-5.5%$54.77
Platinum (morning)XPT/USD$1,653-0.6%—
Palladium (morning)XPD/USD$1,133+0.6%—

As of 2026-10-14

How we got here

  1. Gold slips 0.59% to $4,168.90 as markets price in December hike risk.

  2. Gold closes at $4,160.80, down 0.24%; silver ends at $59.09.

  3. Government reports September inflation of 3.7%, above the 3.6% forecast.

  4. Silver falls below $56 and gold near $4,100 after the inflation data.

What to watch

  • Fed policy meeting, where traders see roughly a 43% chance of a rate hike.2026-10-28
  • Whether gold holds above its 2026 low of $3,942.Q4 2026
  • Whether silver breaks below its 2026 low of $54.77.Q4 2026

Educational content only. Not investment advice.

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