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Oil Dips to $105.78 as Hormuz Standoff Drags On
Why is oil down today?
Brent crude (BZ=F) fell 0.8% to $105.78 on Tuesday as Iran tied reopening Hormuz to an end of the US blockade and easing of oil export curbs, keeping ship traffic scarce.
Key numbers
| Brent crude | $105.78-0.82% on the day |
|---|---|
| Brent, year to date | +69.55%since January |
| WTI crude (12 Oct) | $93.78+2.1% on the day |
| Large ships seen crossing Hormuz, 6 Oct | 7vs about 125 a day pre-war |
| Gulf oil exports, September | 81%of pre-war level, excluding Iran |
| War-risk premium in oil (Goldman Sachs) | $20+per barrel |
What happened
Brent crude (BZ=F) fell 0.8% to $105.78 on Tuesday as Iran tied reopening Hormuz to an end of the US blockade and easing of oil export curbs, keeping ship traffic scarce. Hormuz is the narrow sea route that normally carries about one-fifth of the world's oil and gas. Just 7 large ships were seen crossing on 6 October, the fewest since 23 July, compared with about 125 a day before the war began in February. Oil is still up about 70% since the start of the year.
Why it matters
Brent crude matters to everyday budgets because it sets the base price for petrol and diesel. With talks stalled and the Hormuz route mostly shut, oil stays far above its level at the start of the year. US gasoline averaged $4.36 a gallon on 7 October, up from $3.12 a year earlier. Goldman Sachs estimates war risk adds just over $20 to each barrel.
Who this affects
- MarketmixedHigh impact
- Fuel buyers and airlines face higher costs; producers gain.
- CompanybullishMedium impact
- Oil producers exporting outside Hormuz benefit from higher prices.
- CompetitorsmixedMedium impact
- Gulf exporters lose Hormuz volume; Red Sea and Oman routes gain.
- IndustrybearishMedium impact
- Shippers and tanker crews face rising attack risk and costs.
Brent Crude vs WTI Crude
| Brent crudeBZ=F | $105.78 | -0.82% | +69.55% |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crudeCL=F | $92.60 | — | — |
As of 2026-10-13
How we got here
Iran war begins; Hormuz traffic largely halted from this point.
Only 7 large ships seen crossing Hormuz, the lowest since 23 July.
US sets new nuclear demands; Iran's president calls talks futile.
Brent jumps about 2% to $106.80 after Riyadh airport attack and tanker strikes.
What to watch
- Whether Washington responds to Iran's demand to lift the blockade and ease oil curbs.Q4 2026
- Daily ship counts and tanker attacks around Hormuz, which drive the oil price.Q4 2026
- Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent at $90 in December, well below today's level.2026-12
Educational content only. Not investment advice.
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