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EU-China Trade Gap Widens to €359.8B as Sefcovic Talks Start

Eurostat2 min read4 sources

Why did China open an anti-dumping probe on EU chemicals?

EU-China trade tensions rose on Thursday as trade commissioner Sefcovic began Beijing talks, days after China opened an anti-dumping probe into EU chemical imports, with a record €359.8B EU trade gap at stake.

Key numbers

EU goods deficit with China, 2025€359.8B+18% vs 2024
Other count of 2025 deficit (differs from Eurostat)€360.6B+15% vs 2024 (per [2])
EU deficit with China, Jan–Jul 2026€234Bper [3]
China probe length (p-nitrotoluene)12 months+6 months possible
Chinese hybrid car exports to EU, monthly~50,000from 3,800 in Oct 2024 (per [2])

What happened

EU-China trade tensions rose on Thursday as trade commissioner Sefcovic began Beijing talks, days after China opened an anti-dumping probe into EU chemical imports, with a record €359.8B EU trade gap at stake. China's commerce ministry opened the probe on Saturday into p-nitrotoluene, a chemical used in dyes, medicines and pesticides. Chinese makers say cheap EU imports are hurting them. The probe can run 12 months, plus a six-month extension. The EU opened its own probe into Chinese PVC plastic imports in September. The talks also cover rare earths, metals used in car motors and defense equipment.

Why it matters

EU-China trade matters because Europe buys far more from China than it sells, a gap of €359.8B in 2025, up from €304.5B in 2024. If the talks fail, either side could add new duties, which can raise costs for European businesses and shoppers. China's pause on new rare earth export limits runs out by Nov. 10, and EU leaders meet Oct. 15–16 to discuss China.

Who this affects

Marketmixed
Medium impact
European chemical and industrial firms face trade uncertainty; risk for investors.
Companybearish
Low impact
EU makers of p-nitrotoluene risk losing China sales.
Competitorsbullish
Low impact
Chinese chemical makers that filed the complaint may gain protection.
Industrybearish
Medium impact
Chemical trade faces possible duties; buyers' costs may rise.

EU Trade With China: 2025 vs 2024

2025—€199.6B€559.4B€359.8B
2024—€213.3B€517.8B€304.5B

As of 2026-04-10

How we got here

  1. EU opens an anti-dumping investigation into PVC imports from China and other countries.

  2. China opens anti-dumping probe into EU p-nitrotoluene imports.

  3. Sefcovic meets Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao in Beijing; talks run through Oct. 9.

What to watch

  • Any deal on rare earth supplies or market access from the Beijing talks.2026-10-09
  • EU leaders meet in Brussels to discuss China trade relations.2026-10-15
  • China's pause on new rare earth export controls runs out.2026-11-10

Educational content only. Not investment advice.

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