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Gas station price signs showing fuel prices above $4 and $5 a gallon next to a Shell station
Photo: SSBCrack News

Federal Gas Tax Suspension Odds Hit 12% After Trump Remarks

AAA2 min read6 sources

Will Trump suspend the federal gas tax?

Federal gas tax suspension odds stand at 12% on Wednesday after Trump said Tuesday he is "thinking about" pausing the 18.4-cent levy, though Congress must approve it and is away until after the midterms.

Key numbers

Federal gas tax per gallon18.4¢Diesel: 24.4¢
Kalshi odds of suspension before 2027 (per [3])12%Over $360,000 traded
AAA gas average, Oct 1$4.41+$1.25 vs a year ago
Highway Trust Fund hit, 5-month pause$17B46% of FY2026 fuel tax revenue
Pump price cut if tax paused~4%Gasoline only
Polymarket odds, separate contract ending Nov. 3 (per [6])2%Differs from Kalshi's 12%

What happened

Federal gas tax suspension odds stand at 12% on Wednesday after Trump said Tuesday he is "thinking about" pausing the 18.4-cent levy, though Congress must approve it and is away until after the midterms. Gas now averages about $4.37 a gallon, and the 18.4-cent tax is roughly 4% of that price. Kalshi, a site where people bet on events, puts the chance of a suspension before 2027 at 12%. Trump gave no timeline or plan for getting it through Congress.

Why it matters

A federal gas tax suspension would cut 18.4 cents from every gallon of gasoline, roughly 4% of the pump price, and 24.4 cents from diesel. It would also take about $17 billion over five months out of the Highway Trust Fund, which pays for roads and bridges. With gas up from $3.16 a year ago, the idea is a response to high fuel costs a month before the midterms.

Who this affects

Marketneutral
Low impact
Oil traders: little change, since Congress is away.
Companybearish
Medium impact
Highway Trust Fund would lose about $17 billion.
Competitorsbullish
Low impact
Diesel users would get a bigger 24.4-cent cut.
Industrybullish
Low impact
Drivers would see about 4% off pump prices.

Federal gas tax: Gasoline vs Diesel

Gasoline18.4~4%
Diesel24.4—

As of 2026-10-07

How we got here

  1. AAA national average gas price reaches $4.41 after a record-setting September.

  2. Trump says "We're thinking about that" when asked about suspending the federal gas tax.

  3. Kalshi traders put odds of a suspension before 2027 at 12%.

What to watch

  • Whether Congress takes up a gas tax bill after returning from the midterm recess2026-11-03
  • Kalshi contract on a federal gas tax suspension closes at the end of the year2026-12-31
  • Gas prices and Brent crude, which was near $100 a barrel this weekQ4 2026

Educational content only. Not investment advice.

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