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Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaking with a uniformed Israeli officer
Photo: Yeni Şafak

Israel Election Heads for Deadlock as Netanyahu Bloc Polls 51 Seats

Yeni Şafak2 min read6 sources

Who is winning the Israel election polls?

Israel's Oct. 27 election is heading for deadlock: as of Wednesday, polls put Netanyahu's bloc at about 51 of 120 seats, short of the 61 needed, with the TA-35 index up 16.8% this year.

Key numbers

Netanyahu bloc (Maariv/Lazar poll)51 seats10 short of 61
Opposition bloc (Maariv/Lazar poll)53 seats8 short of 61
TA-35 index, year to date+16.8%as of Sept. 30 (per [3])
Foreign net share purchases, 9 monthsNIS 2.7B-70% vs 2025 (per [3])
Foreign net bank-share sales, 9 monthsNIS 4.9Bvs NIS 6.7B bought in 2025 (per [3])
Opposition in Channel 12 poll54–58 seatsoutlets differ on bloc count [2][6]

What happened

Israel's Oct. 27 election is heading for deadlock: as of Wednesday, polls put Netanyahu's bloc at about 51 of 120 seats, short of the 61 needed, with the TA-35 index up 16.8% this year. It is the first national vote since the Hamas attack of Oct. 7, 2023, which over two-thirds of Jewish voters surveyed call central to their choice. Polls this week put Netanyahu's bloc between 49 and 54 seats, while the opposition camp also falls short. Opposition leaders say they will not form a government that relies on Arab parties, which makes their route to 61 harder.

Why it matters

Israel's election matters because no camp is on track to win a clear majority, so the next government may be hard to form. Foreign investors bought about 70% less Israeli stock in the first nine months of 2026 than a year earlier, partly because of this uncertainty. A clear result could calm investors, while a stalemate may keep money away.

Who this affects

Marketbearish
Medium impact
Foreign investors are buying far less Israeli stock; negative.
Companybearish
Medium impact
Likud polls near 21 seats; Netanyahu lacks a majority path.
Competitorsmixed
Medium impact
Eisenkot's Yashar leads, but opposition still lacks 61 seats.
Industrybearish
Medium impact
Banks: foreign investors sold NIS 4.9 billion of bank shares.

Netanyahu's Bloc vs Opposition Bloc, Arab Parties by Poll

Channel 12 (Oct 5)—49581312
Kan (Oct 4)—51521310
Maariv/Lazar (Oct 2)—51531210
Channel 13 (Sep 30, per [5])—5452147

As of 2026-10-06

How we got here

  1. Hamas attack on Israel; the Oct. 27 vote is the first national election since.

  2. Channel 13 poll: Netanyahu bloc 54, opposition 52; opposition rules out Arab-party partners.

  3. Maariv/Lazar poll: Netanyahu bloc 51 seats, opposition 53, neither near 61.

  4. Channel 12 poll: Yashar 23, Likud 21, Netanyahu coalition 49 seats.

What to watch

  • Election day: whether any bloc reaches 61 of 120 Knesset seats.2026-10-27
  • Final polls: whether Netanyahu's bloc moves above 54 seats or the opposition gains.2026-10-26
  • Foreign investor flows into Israeli stocks and banks after the vote.Q4 2026

Educational content only. Not investment advice.

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