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Brazil's National Congress building in Brasília at dusk
Photo: The Rio Times

Brazil ETF Jumps 10% After Bolsonaro Election Upset

Reuters via Investing.com2 min read6 sources

Why is the Brazil ETF up today?

The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) jumped about 10% to $42.12 in Sunday overnight trading after Flávio Bolsonaro beat polls with 47% of votes to Lula's 45%, a result investors read as market-friendly.

Key numbers

EWZ overnight price$42.12+10.29% vs Friday close
EWZ Friday close$38.19+2.83% on the day
Bolsonaro vote share47.04%+1.9 pts vs Lula's 45.15%
Final Datafolha poll (Oct 3)Lula 45%Bolsonaro 42% (per [4])
Ibovespa, Friday close192,115+2.63%

What happened

The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) jumped about 10% to $42.12 in Sunday overnight trading after Flávio Bolsonaro beat polls with 47% of votes to Lula's 45%, a result investors read as market-friendly. Polls had Lula ahead, with the last Datafolha survey showing him at 45% to Bolsonaro's 42% (per). Neither man passed 50%, so they face a runoff on October 25. The fund closed Friday at $38.19, so Monday's regular US session will show whether the overnight gain holds.

Why it matters

The Brazil ETF (EWZ) jump shows how much one election can move prices for anyone who owns emerging-market funds. Investors read Bolsonaro's lead as friendlier to markets, and one analyst expects Brazil's stocks to rise 4% to 6% and its currency (the real) to strengthen when São Paulo opens. The runoff is still three weeks away, so prices can swing again.

Who this affects

Marketbullish
High impact
Brazilian stocks and the real may rise, good for holders.
Companybullish
Medium impact
EWZ holders gain overnight; regular-hours trading still to come.
Competitorsneutral
Low impact
Mexico and Chile stocks showed modest moves before the vote.
Industrybullish
Low impact
Japan-listed Ibovespa fund rose 12%, showing global demand.

Brazil vs Mexico, Chile, Argentina

Brazil (Ibovespa)IBOV192,115+2.63%
Mexico (S&P/BMV IPC)MEXBOL64,532+1.10%
Chile (S&P IPSA)IPSA10,917+0.08%
Argentina (S&P Merval)MERVAL2,767,663+0.32%

As of 2026-10-02

How we got here

  1. EWZ closes at $36.21, the baseline before the week's rally.

  2. EWZ closes at $38.19, up 2.83%, and the Ibovespa gains 2.63% before the vote.

  3. Final Datafolha poll shows Lula at 45% and Bolsonaro at 42% (per).

  4. Bolsonaro leads 47% to 45%; EWZ jumps about 10% in overnight trading.

What to watch

  • Whether EWZ, the Ibovespa and the real hold the overnight gains when regular trading opens.2026-10-05
  • Brazil's presidential runoff between Bolsonaro and Lula, the next big test for prices.2026-10-25

Educational content only. Not investment advice.

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