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Oil Rises to $99 a Barrel as Hormuz Deal Doubts Grow
Why is oil up today?
Brent crude (BZ=F) rose 1.5% to $99.49 a barrel early Thursday as US-Iran Hormuz talks stalled over sequencing, with Trump saying a deal may wait until after the midterms.
Key numbers
| Brent (Dec) early Thursday | $99.49+1.5% (per [2]) |
|---|---|
| Brent (Dec) Wednesday settle | $98.03+1.9% (per [3]) |
| WTI (Nov) Wednesday settle | $90.42+1.2% (per [3]) |
| Brent (Nov) Monday high after Trump's rejection | $107.35+3% in Asian trading |
| Mideast crude exports, 10-day average | 17.5M bpd98% of pre-war (per [3]) |
| Odds of a deal before midterms (Dennis Ross) | 30%(per [1]) |
What happened
Brent crude (BZ=F) rose 1.5% to $99.49 a barrel early Thursday as US-Iran Hormuz talks stalled over sequencing, with Trump saying a deal may wait until after the midterms. In New York, US and Iranian negotiators are discussing a phased deal: Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that normally carries about one-fifth of the world's oil, and the US would lift its blockade of Iranian ports. The sticking point is who moves first, since Washington wants Iran to give ground before easing pressure and Tehran wants the blockade lifted first. Trump rejected Iran's seven-day reopening offer on Saturday.
Why it matters
Brent crude, the global oil price benchmark, matters because about one-fifth of the world's oil normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil moves feed into fuel costs: US diesel was about $6.53 a gallon, roughly 70% above pre-war levels. Prices could stay jumpy until the two sides agree who moves first, and Trump has suggested a deal may not come before November 3.
Who this affects
- MarketmixedMedium impact
- Oil traders face price swings on each Hormuz headline.
- CompanybullishMedium impact
- Oil producers benefit while prices stay near $100 a barrel.
- CompetitorsneutralLow impact
- US WTI crude trades lower than Brent, near $90.
- IndustrybearishMedium impact
- Shippers and fuel buyers face uncertainty until a deal emerges.
Brent Crude vs WTI Crude, Expiring Brent Contract
| Brent crude (Dec)BZ=F | $98.03 | +1.9% |
|---|---|---|
| Brent crude (Nov, expiring)— | $103.53 | +0.9% |
| WTI crude (Nov)CL=F | $90.42 | +1.2% |
As of 2026-09-30
How we got here
US and Iranian negotiators in New York explore phased deal: end blockade, reopen Hormuz.
Trump rejects Iran's seven-day Hormuz reopening offer, saying it is "not the deal that I want".
Brent nears $108 in Asian trading after the rejection.
Brent December settles at $98.03 as Middle East crude exports near pre-war levels.
What to watch
- Whether Hormuz crude flows keep recovering toward pre-war levels, now about 98% per JPMorgan.Q4 2026
- US midterm elections, after which Trump has said an Iran deal may come.2026-11-03
- Whether talks resume as Trump told Axios he expects, despite rejecting Iran's offer.Q4 2026
Educational content only. Not investment advice.
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