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Nike retail display as the company's stock hovers near multi-year lows amid Dow seat scrutiny
Photo: Insider Monkey / Yahoo Finance

Nike Stock Sinks 80% From Peak as Dow Removal Odds Rise

Reuters / BNN Bloomberg2 min read6 sources

Is Nike stock being removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average?

Nike (NKE) stock has fallen 80% from its 2021 peak to $35.99 as of Thursday, making it the cheapest Dow component and prompting analyst calls for its replacement.

Key numbers

NKE Share Price$35.99-80% from Nov 2021 all-time high of $179.10
YTD 2026 Return-41%vs S&P 500 +13% over same period
Dow Jones Weight0.4%Lowest of all 30 components; Goldman Sachs trades 27x Nike's price (per [1])
FY2026 Revenue$46.4B+0.2% YoY (effectively flat); down from $51.4B in FY2024
Market Cap$53.4Bvs ~$264B peak in Nov 2021; roughly $200B lost
Q1 FY2027 Revenue Estimate$11.3B-3.2% YoY consensus; FY2027 full year guided down low single digits (per [3])

What happened

Nike (NKE) stock has fallen 80% from its 2021 peak to $35.99 as of Thursday, making it the cheapest Dow component and prompting analyst calls for its replacement. Nike holds only a 0.4% slice of the Dow — the index's smallest — because the Dow sums share prices rather than company sizes, so higher-priced peers like Goldman Sachs move the index roughly 27 times more than Nike does (per). Analysts at Motley Fool and Reuters-cited sources have named Berkshire Hathaway B-shares and Tesla as leading candidates to replace Nike in the 30-stock average. Investors are focused on Nike's Q1 earnings on October 1, expected to confirm another year of declining sales after revenue fell 10% in fiscal 2025.

Why it matters

Nike stock's prolonged slump matters because the Dow Jones Industrial Average — tracked by millions of Americans through index funds, ETFs, and retirement accounts — is meant to reflect the health of the U.S. economy. A company that has lost roughly $200 billion in market value since 2021 and is guiding for lower sales may no longer represent that benchmark. If Nike is swapped out, it would be the first Dow component change since Alphabet replaced Verizon in June 2026.

Who this affects

Marketbearish
Low impact
At 0.4% Dow weight, Nike barely moves the index.
Companybearish
High impact
Nike shareholders face continued losses ahead of October 1 earnings.
Competitorsbullish
Medium impact
Adidas and On Holding gain ground as Nike stumbles.
Industrybearish
Medium impact
Nike removal signals footwear's waning role in U.S. benchmarks.

Nike vs Adidas, On Holding, Under Armour

NikeNKE$53.4B-41%21.2x+0.2%
AdidasADDYY$28.2B~-11%15.0x+9%
On HoldingONON$10.2B—14.0x+30%
Under ArmourUAA$1.9B~-44%—-3.8%

As of 2026-09-24

How we got here

  1. Nike stock hits all-time high of $179.10; market cap peaks near $264B.

  2. Elliott Hill becomes CEO, inheriting two consecutive years of revenue decline.

  3. Alphabet replaces Verizon in the Dow; Nike becomes its lowest-priced component.

  4. Nike removed from S&P 100 after 18 years; Dow removal calls intensify.

  5. Q1 FY2027 earnings due; analysts expect revenue down ~3.2% year-on-year (per).

What to watch

  • Q1 FY2027 earnings October 1; consensus sees revenue down ~3.2% YoY.2026-10-01
  • Nike Investor Day fall 2026; company to issue first full-year FY2027 guidance.Q4 2026
  • Dow Averages Committee; monitors Goldman-to-Nike price ratio now at 27x.Q4 2026

Educational content only. Not investment advice.

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