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Micron Stock Surges 275% YTD as $50B Earnings Loom Sept 30
Why is Micron stock up today?
Micron (MU) stock has gained 275% to $1,080 year-to-date through Friday, driven by $50B Q4 revenue guidance and $100B in take-or-pay AI memory contracts signed with 16 customers.
Key numbers
| Q4 FY2026 Revenue Guidance | $50.0B+342% YoY |
|---|---|
| Q4 FY2026 Non-GAAP EPS Guidance | ~$31+923% YoY (approx. 10x) |
| MU YTD Stock Return | +275%52-week high $1,254.81 |
| Contracted AI Revenue (16 SCAs) | $100BMinimum through 2030 |
| HBM4 Revenue Shipped (Q3 FY2026) | >$1BRamps 2x faster than HBM3E |
| Analyst Consensus Price Target | $1,515 avgStreet high $2,000 |
What happened
Micron (MU) stock has gained 275% to $1,080 year-to-date through Friday, driven by $50B Q4 revenue guidance and $100B in take-or-pay AI memory contracts signed with 16 customers. The chipmaker reports fiscal fourth-quarter results on September 30 after the market closes, with analysts expecting about $50.45B in revenue — up 342% compared with a year ago — and roughly $31 in per-share earnings, a tenfold increase year over year. Micron's HBM4 chips, which sit inside the most powerful AI servers, are fully booked through 2027, and the company shipped more than $1B worth of them in its most recent quarter.
Why it matters
Micron is at the center of the AI hardware buildout — it is the only US-based maker of HBM4, the memory chip inside the fastest AI servers today. Sixteen take-or-pay agreements lock in at least $100B in guaranteed sales through 2030, largely eliminating the boom-bust cycles that have historically crushed memory chip stocks. On September 30, the key number to watch is next-quarter gross margin guidance: below 86% could pull the highest price targets off the table.
Who this affects
- MarketbullishHigh impact
- AI chip investors broadly bullish going into earnings.
- CompanybullishHigh impact
- Micron shareholders benefit from $1.2T valuation and record earnings.
- CompetitorsmixedMedium impact
- SK Hynix and Samsung compete harder for remaining AI contracts.
- IndustrybullishHigh impact
- Memory sector shifts from cyclical boom-bust to contracted AI supply.
Micron vs SK Hynix, Samsung, Western Digital
| MicronMU:NASDAQ | $1.21T | -0.3% | +275% | 7x |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SK Hynix000660.KS | $1.01T | +1.2% | +430% | 4.6x |
| Samsung005930.KS | $1.36T | +0.1% | +242% | 4.6x |
| Western DigitalWDC:NASDAQ | $162B | -4.9% | +236% | 22x |
As of 2026-09-24
How we got here
Micron FY2025 Q4 revenue: $11.32B; stock near $280.
Q3 FY2026: $41.46B revenue, +346% YoY; HBM4 tops $1B shipped.
Stock dips below $740 on tariff and export-control fears.
16 AI contracts totaling $100B disclosed; stock hits $1,096.
Q4 FY2026 earnings due after market close.
What to watch
- Q1 FY2027 gross margin guidance — below 86% could trigger analyst downgrades.2026-09-30
- HBM4 conversion to HBM4E and new Nvidia platform supply deal status.Q4 2026
- Taiwan fab union talks; ~10,000 workers moving toward strike vote.Q4 2026
Educational content only. Not investment advice.
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