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Micron Technology memory chip ahead of September 30 fiscal Q4 earnings report
Photo: Investing.com / Reuters

Micron Stock Surges 275% YTD as $50B Earnings Loom Sept 30

24/7 Wall St.2 min read6 sources

Why is Micron stock up today?

Micron (MU) stock has gained 275% to $1,080 year-to-date through Friday, driven by $50B Q4 revenue guidance and $100B in take-or-pay AI memory contracts signed with 16 customers.

Key numbers

Q4 FY2026 Revenue Guidance$50.0B+342% YoY
Q4 FY2026 Non-GAAP EPS Guidance~$31+923% YoY (approx. 10x)
MU YTD Stock Return+275%52-week high $1,254.81
Contracted AI Revenue (16 SCAs)$100BMinimum through 2030
HBM4 Revenue Shipped (Q3 FY2026)>$1BRamps 2x faster than HBM3E
Analyst Consensus Price Target$1,515 avgStreet high $2,000

What happened

Micron (MU) stock has gained 275% to $1,080 year-to-date through Friday, driven by $50B Q4 revenue guidance and $100B in take-or-pay AI memory contracts signed with 16 customers. The chipmaker reports fiscal fourth-quarter results on September 30 after the market closes, with analysts expecting about $50.45B in revenue — up 342% compared with a year ago — and roughly $31 in per-share earnings, a tenfold increase year over year. Micron's HBM4 chips, which sit inside the most powerful AI servers, are fully booked through 2027, and the company shipped more than $1B worth of them in its most recent quarter.

Why it matters

Micron is at the center of the AI hardware buildout — it is the only US-based maker of HBM4, the memory chip inside the fastest AI servers today. Sixteen take-or-pay agreements lock in at least $100B in guaranteed sales through 2030, largely eliminating the boom-bust cycles that have historically crushed memory chip stocks. On September 30, the key number to watch is next-quarter gross margin guidance: below 86% could pull the highest price targets off the table.

Who this affects

Marketbullish
High impact
AI chip investors broadly bullish going into earnings.
Companybullish
High impact
Micron shareholders benefit from $1.2T valuation and record earnings.
Competitorsmixed
Medium impact
SK Hynix and Samsung compete harder for remaining AI contracts.
Industrybullish
High impact
Memory sector shifts from cyclical boom-bust to contracted AI supply.

Micron vs SK Hynix, Samsung, Western Digital

MicronMU:NASDAQ$1.21T-0.3%+275%7x
SK Hynix000660.KS$1.01T+1.2%+430%4.6x
Samsung005930.KS$1.36T+0.1%+242%4.6x
Western DigitalWDC:NASDAQ$162B-4.9%+236%22x

As of 2026-09-24

How we got here

  1. Micron FY2025 Q4 revenue: $11.32B; stock near $280.

  2. Q3 FY2026: $41.46B revenue, +346% YoY; HBM4 tops $1B shipped.

  3. Stock dips below $740 on tariff and export-control fears.

  4. 16 AI contracts totaling $100B disclosed; stock hits $1,096.

  5. Q4 FY2026 earnings due after market close.

What to watch

  • Q1 FY2027 gross margin guidance — below 86% could trigger analyst downgrades.2026-09-30
  • HBM4 conversion to HBM4E and new Nvidia platform supply deal status.Q4 2026
  • Taiwan fab union talks; ~10,000 workers moving toward strike vote.Q4 2026

Educational content only. Not investment advice.

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