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Dow Futures Rise 0.5% as Goolsbee Speaks on December Rate Path

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago2 min read8 sources

Why is the Dow Jones rising today?

Dow Jones (DJIA) futures rose 0.5% to near 52,079 Monday as Fed President Goolsbee delivered the first post-hike remarks, with December hike odds at 75% after Warsh's September 16 rate hike.

Key numbers

December Hike Odds (CME)75.4%Up from ~40% in early August
Dow Monday Futures+0.5%After −1.69% week ending Sept 18
10-Year Treasury Yield4.94%Highest since 2007; briefly above 5%
Fed Funds Rate3.75%–4.00%+25 bps Sept 16 (FOMC vote 12-0)
CFNAI (July 2026)−0.08Below zero signals below-trend growth
October Hike Odds (CME)57.9%Next FOMC meeting: October 28, 2026

What happened

Dow Jones (DJIA) futures rose 0.5% to near 52,079 Monday as Fed President Goolsbee delivered the first post-hike remarks, with December hike odds at 75% after Warsh's September 16 rate hike. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee spoke at an OMFIF event in London at 5:30 AM ET — the first Fed voice since Chair Kevin Warsh raised rates to 3.75%–4.00% and left his forecast dot blank for the second straight meeting. Warsh's hawkish tone sent the Dow down roughly 800 points intraday and briefly pushed the 10-year Treasury yield above 5%, its highest since 2007. The August CFNAI index — a gauge of economic growth — was due at 12:30 PM ET.

Why it matters

The Dow Jones is caught between stubborn inflation — still above 3.7% — and growing odds that the Fed will raise rates again in December, with CME futures now pricing a 75% chance of another hike. Goolsbee has said he wants more data before committing on December — making his Monday remarks the clearest public signal yet on whether a fourth-quarter double hike is on the table. A soft CFNAI print later Monday could shift those odds and ease pressure on rate-sensitive stocks and bonds.

Who this affects

Marketbearish
Medium impact
Rate-sensitive stocks and bonds face ongoing selling pressure.
Companymixed
Medium impact
Higher rates help banks but squeeze growth and tech stocks.
Competitorsneutral
Low impact
Global central banks monitor Fed's increasingly hawkish path.
Industrybearish
Medium impact
Bond yields near multi-decade highs, squeezing fixed income.

Dow Jones vs S&P 500, Nasdaq, Russell 2000

Dow JonesDJIA51,682.64−0.18%−1.69%+9.9%
S&P 500SPX7,650.50+0.17%−0.08%+13.7%
NasdaqCOMP26,522.55+0.39%+0.72%+14.5%
Russell 2000RUT2,860.25−0.50%−1.50%—

As of 2026-09-18

How we got here

  1. Warsh Jackson Hole speech signals September hike; 2-year yield jumps.

  2. Fed hikes to 3.75%–4.00%; Warsh leaves dot blank; Dow drops ~800 pts.

  3. 10-year Treasury yield hits 4.94%, highest since 2007.

  4. Goolsbee OMFIF speech 5:30 AM ET; CFNAI August release at 12:30 PM ET.

What to watch

  • Goolsbee tone on December — dovish shift could soften 75% hike odds.2026-09-21
  • CFNAI August index — below −0.20 may cool December rate expectations.2026-09-21
  • October 28 FOMC — 58% odds of another 25 bps hike now priced.2026-10-28

Educational content only. Not investment advice.

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