PomegraAutoZone Shares Sink 31% in Year as Q4 Comp Sales Seen Slowing
Why is AutoZone stock falling?
AutoZone (AZO) stock is down 31% over the past year and trading near its 52-week low of $2,834 ahead of Tuesday's Q4 earnings, with domestic comp sales expected to slow to 3.7% from 4.8%.
Key numbers
| Q4 FY26 EPS estimate (consensus, 21 analysts) | $54.22+11.3% vs Q4 FY25 actual of $48.71 |
|---|---|
| Q4 FY26 revenue estimate | $6.71B+7.5% vs Q4 FY25 actual of $6.24B |
| Q4 FY26 domestic comp sales estimate | 3.7%vs 4.8% in Q4 FY25 |
| AZO 1-year stock return | -31%52-week high $4,388; current ~$2,844 |
| Oppenheimer price target (revised Sept 18) | $3,500cut from $4,300; Outperform maintained |
| KB Home Q3 FY26 EPS estimate | $0.88-45.3% vs Q3 FY25 actual of $1.61 |
What happened
AutoZone (AZO) stock is down 31% over the past year and trading near its 52-week low of $2,834 ahead of Tuesday's Q4 earnings, with domestic comp sales expected to slow to 3.7% from 4.8%. The company reports before markets open on September 22, the same day KB Home posts results — giving investors a rare same-day read on two types of stretched consumers. Wall Street's consensus calls for earnings of $54.22 per share on $6.71 billion in revenue, up 7.5% year over year. On September 18, Oppenheimer cut its price target to $3,500 from $4,300, citing an oil-price spike as a near-term headwind for do-it-yourself repair demand.
Why it matters
AutoZone is a real-world gauge of how hard household budgets are being squeezed — when people cannot afford a new car, they fix the one they have, and that is what drives AutoZone's business. Slowing comp sales would signal that even the repair-rather-than-replace habit is fading, even as used-car loan rates stay above 8%. KB Home's results on the same day will show whether higher mortgage rates are cooling demand for new homes. Together, the two reports give one of the clearest single-day reads on the American consumer available in 2026.
Who this affects
- MarketbearishMedium impact
- Retail sector watches for a comp-sales miss signal.
- CompanybearishMedium impact
- AZO shareholders braced near 52-week lows before earnings.
- CompetitorsneutralLow impact
- O'Reilly and Advance Auto Parts face the same SSS headwinds.
- IndustrymixedMedium impact
- Aging US vehicle fleet supports repair demand, but growth slows.
AutoZone vs O'Reilly Automotive, Advance Auto Parts
How we got here
AutoZone reports Q4 FY2025: domestic SSS 4.8%, EPS $48.71.
AZO drops ~9% after Q3 FY2026 earnings despite EPS beat.
AutoZone confirms Q4 FY2026 earnings date of September 22.
Oppenheimer cuts AZO price target to $3,500 from $4,300.
AutoZone and KB Home both report; rare dual consumer health check.
What to watch
- Domestic comp sales vs 3.7% consensus; any beat could lift AZO.2026-09-22
- Commercial segment growth vs 8%-plus target; DIY traffic trend.2026-09-22
- KB Home Q4 home deliveries guidance and mortgage rate commentary.2026-09-22
Educational content only. Not investment advice.
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