AutoZone Shares Sink 31% in Year as Q4 Comp Sales Seen Slowing

AutoZone Inc2 min read6 sources

Why is AutoZone stock falling?

AutoZone (AZO) stock is down 31% over the past year and trading near its 52-week low of $2,834 ahead of Tuesday's Q4 earnings, with domestic comp sales expected to slow to 3.7% from 4.8%.

Key numbers

Q4 FY26 EPS estimate (consensus, 21 analysts)	$54.22+11.3% vs Q4 FY25 actual of $48.71
Q4 FY26 revenue estimate	$6.71B+7.5% vs Q4 FY25 actual of $6.24B
Q4 FY26 domestic comp sales estimate	3.7%vs 4.8% in Q4 FY25
AZO 1-year stock return	-31%52-week high $4,388; current ~$2,844
Oppenheimer price target (revised Sept 18)	$3,500cut from $4,300; Outperform maintained
KB Home Q3 FY26 EPS estimate	$0.88-45.3% vs Q3 FY25 actual of $1.61

What happened

AutoZone (AZO) stock is down 31% over the past year and trading near its 52-week low of $2,834 ahead of Tuesday's Q4 earnings, with domestic comp sales expected to slow to 3.7% from 4.8%. The company reports before markets open on September 22, the same day KB Home posts results — giving investors a rare same-day read on two types of stretched consumers. Wall Street's consensus calls for earnings of $54.22 per share on $6.71 billion in revenue, up 7.5% year over year. On September 18, Oppenheimer cut its price target to $3,500 from $4,300, citing an oil-price spike as a near-term headwind for do-it-yourself repair demand.

Why it matters

AutoZone is a real-world gauge of how hard household budgets are being squeezed — when people cannot afford a new car, they fix the one they have, and that is what drives AutoZone's business. Slowing comp sales would signal that even the repair-rather-than-replace habit is fading, even as used-car loan rates stay above 8%. KB Home's results on the same day will show whether higher mortgage rates are cooling demand for new homes. Together, the two reports give one of the clearest single-day reads on the American consumer available in 2026.

Who this affects

Marketbearish Medium impact: Retail sector watches for a comp-sales miss signal.
Companybearish Medium impact: AZO shareholders braced near 52-week lows before earnings.
Competitorsneutral Low impact: O'Reilly and Advance Auto Parts face the same SSS headwinds.
Industrymixed Medium impact: Aging US vehicle fleet supports repair demand, but growth slows.