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Robinhood Markets mobile app interface on a smartphone
Photo: Investing.com

Robinhood Stock Falls 27% YTD as Analysts Lift Targets Into Fed Week

Robinhood Investor Relations2 min read6 sources

Why is Robinhood stock down in September 2026?

Robinhood (HOOD) stock is down 27% year-to-date, trading near $112 on Tuesday, as the prospect of the first Federal Reserve rate hike since 2023 weighs on risk-asset sentiment despite a wave of analyst target raises.

Key numbers

September analyst target range$138–$165Deutsche Bank $138, Mizuho $140, Citizens JMP $165; avg $130.88
HOOD YTD decline-27%$112.32 on Sept 13; 52-week high $153.86 (Oct 2025), 27% above
Q2 2026 total revenue$1.31B+32% vs Q2 2025; record quarter
Q2 2026 EPS$0.62beat $0.44 consensus estimate by 41%
Event contracts revenue (Q2 2026)$156Mup ~15x from $10M in Q2 2025
SpaceX IPO effect on HOOD volumes+38% optionsequity volumes +24% MoM; ~1M funded accounts added in Q2 (per [4])

What happened

Robinhood (HOOD) stock is down 27% year-to-date, trading near $112 on Tuesday, as the prospect of the first Federal Reserve rate hike since 2023 weighs on risk-asset sentiment despite a wave of analyst target raises. Mizuho, Citizens JMP, and Deutsche Bank each raised targets this month — to $140, $165, and $138 respectively — pointing to Robinhood's record Q2 revenue and the potential for AI-driven IPOs to trigger a SpaceX-like jump in retail trading volumes. Event-contract revenue alone grew roughly 15 times year-over-year in Q2 to $156 million, helping push total quarterly revenue to a record $1.31 billion. CEO Vlad Tenev is speaking at Dreamforce in San Francisco today while the Fed opens its September meeting.

Why it matters

Robinhood earns most of its revenue from trading — especially options and event contracts — so a Fed rate hike cuts two ways: it could push retail investors toward safer savings accounts and away from risky trades, or spark a market frenzy that drives volumes higher. The Fed has not raised rates since 2023; Wednesday's expected 25-basis-point move to 3.75–4.00% would mark a genuine shift in the financial backdrop. Higher rates make safer accounts more attractive than speculative trading, which explains why HOOD has fallen 27% this year even as it posted record profits.

Who this affects

Marketmixed
High impact
Rate hike weighs on risk appetite; FOMC volatility is mixed for HOOD.
Companymixed
High impact
FOMC outcome directly drives Robinhood trading volumes and revenue.
Competitorsneutral
Medium impact
COIN, SCHW, and IBKR face the same volume-versus-rate trade-off.
Industrymixed
Medium impact
Online brokers split between rate headwinds and FOMC-volatility upside.

Robinhood vs Coinbase, Charles Schwab, Interactive Brokers

RobinhoodHOOD:NASDAQ$102B-27%50x+32%
CoinbaseCOIN:NASDAQ$51B—n/a (loss)-9%
Charles SchwabSCHW:NYSE$164B———
Interactive BrokersIBKR:NASDAQ$155B—38x—

As of 2026-09-14

How we got here

  1. Q2 record revenue $1.31B reported; event contracts up 15x YoY

  2. Chair Warsh delivers hawkish Jackson Hole speech, lifting rate-hike odds

  3. Mizuho raises HOOD target to $140; flags SpaceX-like options volume surge

  4. Citizens JMP lifts target to $165, highest Wall Street target on HOOD

  5. Deutsche Bank raises target to $138; consensus average target $130.88

What to watch

  • FOMC rate decision Wednesday at 2pm ET; first hike since 20232026-09-16
  • September options and event-contract volume data — key HOOD revenue signalQ4 2026
  • Vlad Tenev remarks at Dreamforce; watch for AI IPO pipeline commentary2026-09-15

Educational content only. Not investment advice.

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