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- Trump pledged no U.S. attack on Iran before the Nov. 3 midterms, citing "productive discussions" with Tehran.
- Brent pulled back from a session high near $106 but settled up about 4% at $104.28.
- Tehran is reviewing a U.S. response to its offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days.
Trump said the U.S. will not attack Iran before the Nov. 3 midterms, citing productive talks, trimming the crude oil price spike as Hormuz risks persist.
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President Donald Trump said on Oct. 8 that the United States will not attack Iran before the Nov. 3 midterm elections, pointing to "productive discussions" with Tehran on ending the war. The statement, posted on social media, came hours after a report that the White House had asked the Pentagon for strike options executable before the vote. It pulled the crude oil price back from its intraday peak. Brent crude still closed higher on the day at $104.28 a barrel, up $4.08, or 4.1%.
What Did Trump Say, and What Prompted It?
Trump wrote that the U.S. "will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections," and referred to productive discussions with the Islamic Republic. The post followed a report that the White House had asked the Pentagon to draw up strike options, and a separate report that U.S. Central Command had been told to finish preparations to resume combat operations.
Those reports cut against a widely held assumption that the administration would avoid escalation before the vote. Brent had jumped as much as 5% on them, to above $105. The pledge trimmed that gain but did not erase it.
The war began on Feb. 28, 2026. Fuel costs have risen with it, and affordability ranks among voters' top concerns heading into the election, which puts Republicans under pressure to keep control of Congress.
Why Did Oil Only Partly Retreat?
Oil only partly retreated because the supply risk in the Persian Gulf did not change with the statement. Shipping attacks in the Strait of Hormuz have reached their highest frequency since the conflict began. The UK Maritime Trade Operations has logged nine incidents so far in October. Daily transits averaged fewer than 23 ships between Sept. 28 and Oct. 1, against hundreds before the war.
Other factors added to the move:
- WTI rose 3.6% to $91.49 a barrel, after touching nearly $93.
- European diesel futures gained about 6% and heating oil about 5%.
- Hurricane Isaias prompted operators to shut roughly 1.3 million barrels a day, or about 63% of Gulf of Mexico output.
- Iranian-linked attacks in Saudi Arabia kept regional supply concerns alive.
The U.S. Treasury also imposed new sanctions on 17 vessels carrying Iranian crude and petrochemicals. That tightened the U.S. enforcement posture even as the president pointed to diplomacy.
What Is Tehran's Position on Hormuz?
Tehran is reviewing the U.S. response to its proposal under which the Strait of Hormuz could reopen within seven days. Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said a reply would come within days. The strait carries a large share of seaborne crude, so a credible reopening is the single largest variable for the crude oil price in the coming weeks.
The sequence of strike reports, public denial and sanctions suggests that Washington is combining pressure with negotiation. The pledge removes the near-term prospect of U.S. strikes. It does not commit Iran to ending attacks on shipping, and it leaves open what follows after the election.
How Did Broader Markets React?
Broader markets were mixed to lower. The S&P 500 slipped 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.2%, with weakness in technology shares tied partly to concerns over OpenAI revenue. The Russell 2000 was flat. Higher fuel costs and the prospect of persistent energy-driven inflation weighed on sentiment, while the Treasury sanctions and Gulf storm disruption added to the supply picture.
What Comes Next for the Crude Oil Price?
The crude oil price now depends on three things: Iran's answer on Hormuz, the pace of shipping attacks, and the recovery of Gulf of Mexico output after the storm. The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts Brent will average about $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter, after a September average near $114.
Bank of America (BAC) has outlined a Brent range of $95 to $120 if skirmishes continue. It sees a possible spike toward $150 if major infrastructure is damaged. A confirmed reopening of the strait would pull prices toward the lower end of that range. A breakdown in talks, or a resumption of attacks on tankers, would push them toward the upper end.Outlook
Trump's pledge lowers the near-term risk of U.S. military action against Iran but leaves the physical constraints on supply in place. Brent remains above $100 and Hormuz traffic remains a fraction of normal. The next catalysts are Tehran's reply on the seven-day reopening proposal, the trajectory of tanker attacks, and the Nov. 3 vote, after which the administration's constraints on military options are expected to loosen.