Trump: Iran Wants a Deal as Oil Climbs Past $90

Trump says Iran 'really wants' a US-Iran deal, pushing WTI crude above $90 amid sustained energy volatility and uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz.

Lead

President Donald Trump said Sunday that Iran "really wants to make a deal," urging markets and allies to "sit back and relax" as diplomatic talks entered a critical phase. The remarks, which landed as oil markets opened for the week on June 1, 2026, drove West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude above $90 per barrel—gaining more than 2.6% on the session—while Brent crude held near $96. The statement follows a May 28 preliminary framework in which U.S. and Iranian negotiators drafted a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire and open formal nuclear talks, an agreement Trump has not yet signed and that Iranian state media insists remains unfinalized.

What Happened

The 2026 Iran war began on February 28, when the United States and Israel launched a sustained air campaign that destroyed large portions of Iran's military infrastructure and resulted in the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Within days, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) shut the Strait of Hormuz, boarding and attacking merchant vessels, laying sea mines across the shipping lane, and reducing tanker crossings to a trickle. The waterway had carried roughly 15 million barrels per day of crude and petroleum products before the conflict—approximately one-fifth of global oil and LNG flows.

Pakistan brokered an initial ceasefire on April 8, which Trump extended indefinitely on April 21. On May 28, American and Iranian negotiators reached a preliminary framework: a 60-day MOU to maintain the ceasefire and launch talks on Tehran's nuclear program. Trump has not yet approved it. On Sunday he added a cluster of longstanding U.S. demands: a permanent Iranian prohibition on nuclear weapons, the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to two-way traffic without tolls, removal of all mines, and full access for American forces to locate and destroy Iran's remaining enriched uranium stockpiles—much of it buried under rubble from the campaign.

"Iran really wants to make a deal because they have no military left," Trump told reporters. "It will all work out well in the end—it always does."

Market Reaction

The intraday rebound follows a historic May sell-off. Brent crude posted a decline of more than 19% last month, the steepest monthly drop since March 2020, when pandemic lockdowns cratered global demand. Traders had aggressively priced in a durable US-Iran deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. As the May 28 framework surfaced, WTI briefly fell below $90 and U.S. crude settled near $89—levels not seen since before the war began. The June 1 reversal reflects a recalibration: the deal is not yet signed, Iran's state media is downplaying progress, and the Lebanon front has re-injected geopolitical risk premium.

The prevailing oil forecast among major commodity desks now places Brent in the $90–$100 range "for at least the next couple of months," pending clearer diplomatic signals.

Strategic Context

The Strait of Hormuz remains the central variable in global energy pricing. Before the war, 191 vessels crossed in an average month; in April 2026, that total covered the entire month. Even in a successful deal scenario, the return of normal tanker traffic faces material obstacles. Gulf oil infrastructure—refineries, export terminals, and pipeline networks across the Persian Gulf littoral—sustained significant damage during the air campaign. De-mining operations alone are expected to require weeks of coordinated naval effort. Maritime insurers have not restored standard coverage terms for the region, adding logistical friction on top of diplomatic uncertainty.

A partial reopening, the most likely near-term outcome if the MOU is signed, would bring back a fraction of the pre-war flow and provide incremental downward pressure on Brent—but would fall well short of the supply normalization priced into the May rally.

Geopolitical Dimension

The Trump Iran framework, if ratified, would represent the most consequential restructuring of Middle East security architecture in years. Trump's conditions go substantially further than the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action: they demand not just nuclear limits but permanent disarmament, strategic control of the Strait of Hormuz, and physical access to Iran's nuclear materials. Tehran has privately pushed back on the immediate Hormuz demand and questioned the verification mechanism for its enriched uranium stockpile, according to diplomatic channels—frictions that explain why the May 28 draft remains unsigned.

Complicating the picture is the Israel-Lebanon front. Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon have intensified, prompting Iran's residual proxy networks to signal that back-channel communications may be suspended. Any resumed direct hostilities or violation of ceasefire terms would quickly reverse May's oil correction and activate the higher-end price scenarios now embedded in options markets.

Outlook

The US-Iran deal remains the dominant driver of the global oil forecast for the second half of 2026. If Trump signs the 60-day MOU and talks progress toward a durable settlement, Brent crude is widely expected to drift toward $85–$90 per barrel as Hormuz shipping partially recovers and Gulf supply returns to market. A breakdown in negotiations would carry the opposite consequence—Brent could climb toward $130–$150 per barrel in scenarios modeled across energy trading desks, amplifying energy volatility through fuel, petrochemical, power, and transportation sectors worldwide. With Trump's approval outstanding, Iran's state media skeptical, and Lebanon adding a new flashpoint, markets face weeks of acute and potentially sharp directional uncertainty.