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Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS) delivered $582.3 million in second-quarter 2026 revenue on Tuesday, a 454% increase from the year-earlier period, as the AI cloud and data center operator crossed into sustained profitability at the EBITDA level. Adjusted EBITDA reached $236.2 million — a 40.6% margin — reversing a $21.0 million loss recorded in the same quarter of 2025. The results, released August 12, signal that Nebius has moved from a high-growth, cash-consuming build phase into a period of simultaneous scale and margin expansion.Financial Performance
The company's AI cloud segment drove the bulk of the acceleration. For the full year 2025, Nebius generated $529.8 million in revenue — a 479% annual gain — establishing the baseline from which Q2 2026's 454% growth now extends. Q1 2026 revenue had already reached $399 million on an 841% AI cloud expansion, making the Q2 result both a continuation and a deepening of that trajectory.
- Q2 2026 revenue reached $582.3 million, a 454% year-over-year increase, with adjusted EBITDA margin of 40.6%.
- Contracted backlog surpassed $50 billion, anchored by a $27 billion Meta agreement signed in July 2026.
- Full-year 2026 revenue guidance stands at $3–$3.4 billion; capex outlook raised to $20–$25 billion.
GAAP diluted earnings per share came in at a loss of $0.68, compared with earnings of $2.05 in the prior-year quarter, reflecting elevated stock-based compensation and depreciation on rapidly expanding infrastructure. Capital expenditures reached $2.47 billion in Q1 alone, and the company raised its full-year capex guidance to $20–$25 billion from the previous $16–$20 billion range — a signal that demand commitments are running ahead of earlier projections.
Annual recurring revenue guidance of $7–$9 billion for 2026 reflects the locked-in, subscription-style nature of Nebius's enterprise GPU contracts, which reduces near-term revenue variability even as the company absorbs large upfront infrastructure costs.Strategic Context
Two landmark agreements define Nebius's medium-term revenue floor. In July 2026, the company signed a $27 billion deal with Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) covering $12 billion in dedicated NVIDIA Vera Rubin platform capacity beginning in early 2027, with a further $15 billion in available-capacity commitments through 2029. Separately, a deal with AI startup Reflection AI secured over $1 billion in computing power running through 2029 using NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) GB300 chips.
Both agreements were preceded by NVIDIA's own $2 billion strategic investment in Nebius announced in March 2026 — a securities purchase in pre-funded warrants that also granted Nebius early access to Rubin-platform hardware, Vera CPUs, and BlueField storage systems. The capital injection simultaneously accelerated Nebius's supply chain position and validated its technical stack at the highest tier of the AI infrastructure ecosystem.
Infrastructure Expansion
Nebius's total power capacity has surpassed 3.5 gigawatts, with the company targeting more than 5 GW of NVIDIA computing by end of 2030. On the domestic front, it secured up to 1.2 GW of power capacity and land for a new owned facility in Pennsylvania, and broke ground on a gigawatt-scale campus across approximately 400 acres in Independence, Missouri — the first project of that scale in the United States, expected to generate roughly 1,200 construction jobs and 130 permanent positions.
Market Reaction
Nebius shares entered the earnings session at approximately $188, having retreated 14.4% over the prior 30 days from a June 18 all-time closing high of $286.69. Despite delivering financials ahead of consensus, the stock has faced headwinds from a public hearing related to a Vineland, New Jersey data center development, which triggered a 13.3% single-session decline on August 6. Year-to-date, shares remain up roughly 167%.
Analyst sentiment skews bullish: 18 of the analysts tracked by S&P Global rate NBIS a buy, with an average price target near $255. Citigroup maintained its buy rating while trimming its target to $278; DA Davidson moved to neutral with a $175 target, citing execution risk around facility timelines; Baird initiated with outperform at $250.
Outlook
Nebius enters the second half of 2026 with a contracted backlog above $50 billion, a reaffirmed full-year revenue target of $3–$3.4 billion, and an adjusted EBITDA margin that crossed 40% in Q2. The primary near-term risk centers on permitting and construction timelines for new facilities, as any delay in power delivery affects the speed at which backlog converts to recognized revenue. Wall Street consensus projects revenue approaching $11 billion in 2027 and $21 billion by 2028, trajectories that are now underpinned by named hyperscaler commitments rather than speculative demand assumptions.
