Nasdaq Breaks Losing Streak as US-Iran Halt Lifts Tech

The Nasdaq snapped a five-day losing streak June 29 as the US and Iran agreed to halt attacks, boosting Nasdaq futures and tech rebound momentum into the holiday-shortened week.

Lead

The Nasdaq Composite broke its five-session losing streak on Monday, June 29, 2026, rising close to 1% after the United States and Iran agreed to halt reciprocal military strikes and restore commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Nasdaq futures had pointed to a higher open in overnight trading, with the Nasdaq 100 contract trading between 29,493 and 29,744 before the New York session began, signaling that the diplomatic shift had already reshuffled risk positioning. The S&P 500 added 0.55% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.29%, but technology paced all major benchmarks as investors reversed a week of aggressive selling across AI-linked and semiconductor names.

What Happened

The Nasdaq Composite closed Friday, June 27, at 25,297 — its fifth consecutive losing session and the culmination of a 4.6% weekly decline, its worst in months. Three forces converged to produce that selloff. First, reports that OpenAI was weighing a delay of its closely watched IPO, citing the volatile post-debut performance of high-profile listings, rattled confidence in the AI spending narrative that had underpinned technology valuations through the spring. Second, broader doubts about the near-term pace of AI infrastructure investment pressured chip-exposed names disproportionately. Third, quarter-end mechanics amplified the move: an estimated $300 billion in US equity sales tied to semi-annual rebalancing by large pension funds and sovereign wealth funds concentrated into the final trading days of June, with technology carrying an outsized weight in those portfolios.

Tech Rebound 2026

Monday's session delivered a sharp reversal across the sector. Nvidia broke its own five-day losing streak, rising more than 1% to $194.78. Amazon climbed nearly 5%, Meta Platforms advanced more than 3%, and Alphabet gained approximately 3.5%. Applied Materials and Oracle each added more than 3%, underscoring that the recovery was broad rather than concentrated in the largest names. The pattern reflected a combination of geopolitical relief and tactical bargain-buying after five sessions of indiscriminate selling had compressed valuations in companies whose business fundamentals had not materially changed.

US-Iran Ceasefire Dimension

The diplomatic context was the sharpest near-term catalyst for the reversal. The US-Iran ceasefire established under a memorandum of understanding signed June 17 had come under severe strain over the weekend. The back-and-forth began Thursday when Iran struck a container vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting US Central Command to hit 10 Iranian military targets on Friday in retaliation. Tehran struck again Saturday, targeting a tanker carrying Qatari oil. Iran also launched ballistic missile and drone attacks on Bahrain and Kuwait. By Sunday, however, US officials confirmed that both sides agreed to stand down and restore commercial shipping through the strategically vital waterway, with technical-level peace talks set to resume in Qatar.

The US-Iran ceasefire announcement reached equity markets during Asian and European trading hours, allowing Nasdaq futures to price in the risk reduction before the New York open.

Market Reaction

The risk-relief trade spread across asset classes, though with complexity in energy markets. Brent crude futures rose 1.7% to $73.20 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate added 2.4% to $70.85, as oil traders balanced relief from the pause in hostilities against uncertainty about the recovery timeline for Persian Gulf supply chains disrupted by the weekend's events. Energy strategists cautioned that the optimism embedded in oil's bounce may be outrunning the pace at which shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz can normalize.

An additional domestic tailwind supported Monday's session: the Supreme Court rejected an effort to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook from her position, reducing a source of uncertainty around the independence of the Fed's rate-setting process at a moment when monetary policy expectations remained a background variable in technology equity pricing.

Strategic Context

The Nasdaq's five-session losing streak was not exclusively geopolitical in origin, and the forces that drove it have not fully resolved. The index had surged through April and May on the strength of megacap technology earnings and elevated AI infrastructure expectations, reaching levels that left it exposed to any revision in that thesis. The late-June repricing — amplified by quarter-end mechanics and geopolitical noise — brought the Nasdaq back toward levels more consistent with prevailing interest rate expectations. The one-day recovery retraces only a fraction of what was lost over five sessions.

What Comes Next

The holiday-shortened week closes Friday for the Fourth of July, compressing the window for significant market-moving events. The critical release is Thursday's June nonfarm payrolls report — shifted from its usual first-Friday schedule because of the holiday — which carries significant weight for Federal Reserve rate deliberations and, by extension, the valuation premium assigned to long-duration technology growth stocks.

On the geopolitical front, US-Iran talks are expected to resume in Qatar, addressing the Strait of Hormuz, the broader terms of the June 17 memorandum, and outstanding issues from the 2026 Iran war. Each prior ceasefire in the conflict has faced testing within days of announcement, leaving energy and equity markets alert to any deterioration. Brent crude's intraday reaction on Monday illustrated how quickly that channel transmits from geopolitics to asset prices.

Outlook

Monday's Nasdaq gains reflect a relief rally, not a resolution of underlying pressures. The tech rebound 2026 faces two near-term tests: Thursday's jobs data, which will shape Federal Reserve expectations heading into July, and the durability of the US-Iran ceasefire as technical talks resume in Qatar. If both hold, the conditions for a sustained recovery in Nasdaq futures and broader technology equities improve materially. If either falters, the five-session losing streak may prove a pause rather than a floor.

Markets }}