Pomegra
ASML raised its 2026 revenue forecast to €43–45 billion for the second time this year, as Q2 earnings beat estimates on surging AI chip equipment orders extending into 2028.
- ASML raised its full-year 2026 revenue outlook to €43–45 billion from €36–40 billion, the second guidance upgrade this year driven by AI chip equipment demand.
- Q2 net sales of €9.3 billion and net profit of €2.9 billion both surpassed consensus estimates, with EUV lithography orders booked through 2028.
- Intel shipped the semiconductor industry's first high-volume logic chips produced on High-NA EUV equipment, validating next-generation technology critical to the AI chip supply chain.
Lead
ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) surged as much as 7% at the open on Wednesday after the Dutch chipmaking equipment maker posted second-quarter net sales of €9.3 billion — well above the €8.8 billion consensus — and raised its full-year 2026 revenue forecast to between €43 billion and €45 billion. The revision, the second of the year, came alongside a net profit of €2.9 billion against an expected €2.6 billion, as CEO Christophe Fouquet cited "extremely strong" order intake and an AI infrastructure buildout that is accelerating chipmaker capital expenditure plans across the globe. ASML shares have gained approximately 115% year-to-date, and the company's market capitalization stood at roughly $692 billion as of July 16.What Happened
ASML's gross margin for Q2 reached 54%, in line with prior guidance, while its installed base business — services and upgrades on existing tools — landed at €2.8 billion, approximately €300 million above expectations. That outperformance reflects how aggressively chipmakers are maximizing output from installed capacity while waiting on new system deliveries. EUV lithography orders now extend into 2028, and Fouquet indicated the company is close to filling its full 2027 EUV order book — a signal that demand visibility has crystallized far beyond typical booking cycles. Memory-related revenue is forecast to grow 75% for full-year 2026, driven by surging demand for high-bandwidth memory tied to AI training and inference hardware.
For the third quarter, ASML guided net sales of €11.0 billion to €12.0 billion with a gross margin of 55% to 57%, implying a sharp second-half acceleration as system deliveries ramp to fill the backlog.
Market Reaction
ASML's ASML stock surge on July 16 reflected both the magnitude of the guidance raise — a roughly 12–15% upward revision to the midpoint — and the broader confirmation that the AI chip trade shows no sign of decelerating. Initial gains trimmed through the session as investors digested the scale of the forward commitment and weighed the company's China revenue exposure, but the report was broadly received as a positive signal for the semiconductor sector. Chipmakers and equipment peers saw sympathetic buying as investors treated ASML's order data as a leading indicator for industry-wide capex trends.
AI and Technology Angle
A concurrent announcement amplified the session's semiconductor momentum: Intel (INTC) disclosed it has become the first company in history to ship a high-volume logic product using High-NA EUV lithography — specifically ASML's EXE:5000 scanner. The product, Intel's Panther Lake processor family built on the 18A process node, marks a generational inflection in chipmaking. High-NA EUV's greater numerical aperture resolves finer circuit features than current low-NA tools, enabling denser transistor counts essential for next-generation AI accelerators. TSMC (TSM) has not committed to comparable High-NA EUV production before 2029, creating a near-term technology differentiation for Intel's foundry ambitions. Fouquet described AI as the "primary growth driver in advanced logic" and said customers are expanding capacity plans for 2026 and locking in long-term agreements to secure system allocations.
Strategic Context
ASML occupies a structurally irreplaceable position in the global semiconductor industry outlook. As the sole manufacturer of EUV lithography systems — the only equipment capable of patterning circuits at the 3-nanometer node and below — every advanced AI chip produced by TSMC, Intel, and Samsung passes through ASML's tools. The company targets a 30% increase in low-NA EUV capacity and a 30% expansion in Deep Ultraviolet immersion capacity within its 2026 plan. Planned 2027 high-volume EUV production is set at 84 systems, with a further 30% increase under study for 2028. These multi-year capacity commitments, which require long production lead times, reflect genuine conviction from the world's largest chipmakers rather than short-cycle inventory speculation.
Geopolitical Dimension
The ASML orders surge is not insulated from geopolitical friction. Export restrictions implemented by the Dutch government — aligned with U.S. policy aimed at limiting China's access to advanced semiconductor equipment — continue to constrain shipments of the most capable EUV tools. China accounted for approximately 14% of ASML's Q2 system sales by ship-to location and roughly 20% of total revenue including services. Management flagged that this share is likely to compress further as export controls tighten on advanced equipment categories. ASML remains a central instrument in U.S.-China strategic technology competition, placing its geographic revenue mix under persistent investor and regulatory scrutiny.
Outlook
ASML's second 2026 guidance raise, combined with order visibility extending to 2028 and Intel's High-NA EUV production milestone, reinforces the structural case for the AI chip equipment demand cycle. The company's full-year revenue target of €43–45 billion with gross margins of 54–56% represents a significant step-change from earlier expectations. Near-term attention will focus on whether second-half deliveries arrive on schedule, how export restrictions reshape China revenue over the following quarters, and whether the semiconductor industry's AI-driven capex cycle maintains its current velocity into 2027.
