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A shopper pays with a ten-euro banknote at a market in Paris
Photo: Reuters / Stephanie Lecocq

Euro Falls to $1.1157, a 17-Month Low, as Fed Hike Bets Grow

Reuters (via Euronext Live)2 min read6 sources

Why did the euro fall to a 17-month low?

The euro (EUR/USD) fell 0.4% to about $1.1157 on Monday, a 17-month low, after hawkish Cleveland Fed comments and Brent oil above $106 lifted the dollar.

Key numbers

EUR/USD (Mon close)$1.1156-0.4% on the day
EUR/USD 17-month low$1.1150–1.1161sources differ slightly
Dollar index102.58+0.37%, highest since Apr 2025
Brent crudeAbove $106+1.7% on the day
December Fed hike oddsAbout 86%per [4]
Euro weekly losing streak5 weekslongest since start of 2025

What happened

The euro (EUR/USD) fell 0.4% to about $1.1157 on Monday, a 17-month low, after hawkish Cleveland Fed comments and Brent oil above $106 lifted the dollar. The dollar index, which tracks the dollar against six major currencies, rose to 102.58, its highest since April 2025. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said the Fed should move "relatively quickly" toward tougher, rate-raising policy to fight broader inflation. Worries about France's finances before its 2027 election also weigh on the euro, which has now fallen five weeks in a row. By Tuesday morning it had recovered to about $1.1194.

Why it matters

The euro's slide to a 17-month low shows how a stronger dollar can make life costlier in Europe. Oil is priced in dollars, so a weaker euro makes fuel more expensive there and adds to inflation worries. It also changes what a dollar buys for travelers and importers. Markets now see a December US interest-rate hike as likely, which can keep the dollar firm.

Who this affects

Marketmixed
Medium impact
Dollar holders gain; euro holders and importers face costs.
Companybearish
Medium impact
Eurozone households face pricier oil and imports; exporters gain.
Competitorsbearish
Low impact
Pound, Aussie dollar and Swiss franc also lost ground.
Industrymixed
Medium impact
European exporters gain from a cheaper euro; importers pay more.

Euro vs British Pound, Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc

EuroEURUSD=X1.1155 per euro-0.41%
British poundGBPUSD=X1.3203 per pound-0.21%
Japanese yenJPY=X158.64 yen per dollar-0.21%
Swiss francCHF=X0.8345 francs per dollar-0.53%

As of 2026-10-12

How we got here

  1. Euro touches $1.1161, then a 17-month low, on oil and French budget worries.

  2. Euro closes a fifth straight weekly loss near $1.1198.

  3. Hammack urges quick tightening; euro falls 0.4% to about $1.1156.

  4. Euro recovers to about $1.1194 as US yields ease.

What to watch

  • US consumer price report, expected to show inflation rising to 3.7% a year2026-10-14
  • US producer price data, a second read on inflation pressure2026-10-15
  • Fed meeting; markets give about 78% odds of no rate change2026-10-28

Educational content only. Not investment advice.

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