S&P 500 Rises 0.9% as Fed Hike Odds Fall to 16%

Federal Reserve2 min read6 sources

Why is the S&P 500 up today?

S&P 500 (SPX) rose about 0.9% to near 7,738 on Friday after a weak September jobs report cut October Fed rate-hike odds from 64% to 16%, easing fears of higher borrowing costs.

Key numbers

September jobs added	29,000vs about 90,000 expected
Unemployment rate	4.2%from 4.1% in August
October Fed hike odds	16%from 64% a week ago; other reports show 12–20%
S&P 500 move	+0.9%Friday morning trading
Nasdaq move	+1.5%Friday morning trading
10-year Treasury yield	about 5.2%slightly lower on the day

What happened

S&P 500 (SPX) rose about 0.9% to near 7,738 on Friday after a weak September jobs report cut October Fed rate-hike odds from 64% to 16%, easing fears of higher borrowing costs. The US added only 29,000 jobs in September, well below the roughly 90,000 economists expected, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1%. Earlier months were also cut: July now shows 10,000 jobs lost, and August was lowered to 133,000. The Nasdaq rose about 1.5% in morning trading.

Why it matters

The S&P 500 gained because investors now think the Federal Reserve is much less likely to raise interest rates again this month. The Fed raised rates on 16 September to a range of 3.75% to 4.00% to fight stubborn inflation, which makes loans and mortgages costlier. Slower hiring can ease price pressures, but it also shows the job market is cooling.

Who this affects

Marketbullish Medium impact: Stock investors gain as rate-hike fears fade.
Companybullish Low impact: Big US companies benefit if borrowing costs stop rising.
Competitorsbullish Medium impact: Nasdaq tech stocks gain more than the broader index.
Industrybearish Medium impact: Workers face slower hiring and weak wage growth.

S&P 500 vs Nasdaq Composite, Dow Jones


S&P 500^GSPC	+0.9%	500 large US companies
Nasdaq Composite^IXIC	+1.5%	Tech-heavy US stocks
Dow Jones Industrial Average^DJI	+0.5%	30 large US blue-chip companies

As of 2026-10-02T14:16:00Z

How we got here

Sep 16, 2026
Fed raises rates by 0.25 point to 3.75%–4.00%, voting 12-0.
Sep 25, 2026
Traders price about a 64% chance of an October Fed hike, per a week-earlier comparison.
Oct 2, 2026
US reports 29,000 September jobs and 4.2% unemployment; stocks rise as hike odds drop to 16%.

What to watch

Fed decision on whether to raise rates again, with hike odds now near 16%.2026-10-28
Whether the 10-year Treasury yield, near 5.2%, keeps falling after the jobs miss.Q4 2026

Educational content only. Not investment advice.