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October Fed Hike Odds Hold at 64% Before JOLTS and Consumer Confidence Data

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics2 min read7 sources

Why are October Fed rate hike odds at 64%?

October Fed hike odds held near 64% on Tuesday as August JOLTS (7.23M forecast) and September confidence (90.1) are due, the week's first hard data before PCE and payrolls.

Key numbers

August JOLTS Forecast7.23M−41K vs July's 7.271M
September CB Confidence Forecast90.1+0.7 vs August's 89.4
October 28 Fed Hike Probability64%+6.4 ppts vs prior week's 57.6%
Current Fed Funds Target3.75%–4.00%+25bp on Sep 16
10-Year Treasury Yield5.24%+6 bps Sep 29
CB Expectations Index (Aug)68.2−5.8 vs July's 74.0; below 80 threshold

What happened

October Fed hike odds held near 64% on Tuesday as August JOLTS (7.23M forecast) and September confidence (90.1) are due, the week's first hard data before PCE and payrolls. August job openings are expected to ease from July's 7.271 million, part of a gradual softening from the year's earlier spring peak. Consumer confidence is forecast to edge up to 90.1 from August's 89.4, though the Expectations sub-index at 68.2 stays below the recessionary 80 level. The Fed hiked to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, and markets now place a 64% probability on a further 25-basis-point move on October 28.

Why it matters

These two data releases — August JOLTS and September consumer confidence — are the week's first hard signals of whether the US economy is strong enough to absorb another Fed rate hike or whether cracks are beginning to show. A weaker-than-expected JOLTS reading could ease October hike odds from their current 64%; a stronger reading or a confidence beat would likely push them higher. The pattern of softening expectations (below 80 for two consecutive months) alongside still-elevated job openings is the same mixed picture the Fed has struggled to decode all year.

Who this affects

Marketmixed
Medium impact
S&P 500 fell 0.8% early Tuesday ahead of data.
Companyneutral
Low impact
No single company directly affected; borrowing costs at stake.
Competitorsbearish
Medium impact
Small caps face biggest headwinds if October hike is confirmed.
Industrymixed
Medium impact
Banks gain; housing and consumer discretionary face headwinds.

S&P 500 vs Nasdaq Composite, Russell 2000

S&P 500SPX7,743+0.5%+12.6%
Nasdaq CompositeCOMP26,820 (per [7])−0.9% (per [7])+18.7% (per [7])
Russell 2000RUT2,821 (per [7])−0.7% (per [7])—

As of 2026-09-28

How we got here

  1. Conference Board confidence falls to 89.4; Expectations Index sinks to 68.2

  2. BLS releases July JOLTS showing 7.271M openings, hires rate at Feb 2026 low

  3. Fed hikes 25bp to 3.75%–4.00% in unanimous vote, citing persistent inflation

  4. August JOLTS (7.23M expected) and September confidence (90.1) released today

  5. August PCE due; core forecast +3.40% YoY, key October hike input

  6. September payrolls due; forecast 100K jobs vs August's 162K

What to watch

  • August JOLTS vs 7.23M consensus — a miss may cool October hike odds2026-09-29
  • CB Expectations Index: can it climb back above the recessionary 80 threshold2026-09-29
  • August PCE core print Wednesday — consensus at +3.40% YoY2026-09-30

Educational content only. Not investment advice.

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