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Oracle Stock Down 55% From Peak as OpenAI Payment Doubts Persist
Oracle's record $638 billion order backlog hasn't stopped its shares from losing more than half their value since OpenAI concentration fears took hold.
Key numbers
| Stock price | $158.78down ~55% from Sept 2025 high of $345.72 |
|---|---|
| Year-to-date | -21%vs +1% for the Nasdaq peers group |
| RPO (backlog) | $638B+363% YoY, as of May 31, 2026 |
| OpenAI's share of new RPO | $300B of $317Bone quarter's backlog growth (per [4]) |
| Forward P/E | ~18xrange 17x-20x across data providers |
| OCI cloud revenue growth | +93% YoYQ4 FY2026, ended May 31, 2026 |
What happened
Oracle's stock has been cut in half over the past year, even though the company keeps posting record numbers for future business. Shares trade near $158, down about 55% from the all-time high of $345.72 hit in September 2025. The slide is driven by worries over Oracle's biggest customer: ChatGPT maker OpenAI, which has agreed to pay Oracle roughly $300 billion for computing power, a deal investors fear OpenAI cannot actually afford. Oracle's order backlog, called RPO, still grew to a record $638 billion, up 363% from a year earlier, but much of that growth traces back to OpenAI alone.
Why it matters
If OpenAI can't pay what it promised, Oracle's giant backlog may never turn into real cash, even as Oracle borrows tens of billions of dollars to build the data centers OpenAI would use. That is why Oracle's shares keep falling even though its official growth numbers look stronger than ever — a lesson that a big contract on paper is not the same as guaranteed revenue. Oracle reports fresh results on September 10, 2026, a report investors are treating as a make-or-break test for the broader AI spending boom.
Who this affects
- MarketbearishMedium impact
- AI-trade investors reassess risk in contract-based growth stories.
- CompanybearishHigh impact
- Oracle shareholders have lost over half their value.
- CompetitorsmixedMedium impact
- Microsoft, Google look safer with more diversified cloud customers.
- IndustrymixedMedium impact
- AI infrastructure deals face closer scrutiny over customer credit risk.
Oracle vs AI cloud peers
How we got here
Oracle unveils $300B OpenAI cloud deal; RPO jumps 359% to $455B, shares soar
Oracle reports FY2026 results; RPO hits record $638B, up 363% YoY
Analysts flag OpenAI's roughly $300B share of quarterly RPO growth ahead of earnings
Shares trade near $158, about 55% below the September 2025 peak
Oracle scheduled to report fiscal Q1 2027 earnings after market close
What to watch
- Oracle fiscal Q1 2027 earnings, updated RPO and OCI cloud growth2026-09-10
- Any disclosure on OpenAI's ability to fund its Oracle commitmentsQ4 2026
- Progress on Oracle's planned $20B debt and $20B equity raiseQ4 2026
Educational content only. Not investment advice.
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