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Evercore ISI lifted its SpaceX (SPCX) target to $275 from $230 as faster compute growth lifts 2027 and 2029 forecasts; shares trade near $150 premarket.
- Evercore ISI raised its SpaceX price target to $275 from $230 on faster compute capacity growth.
- The firm lifted its 2029 adjusted EBITDA estimate to $266 billion from $210 billion.
- SPCX shares rose about 1% premarket to roughly $150, above the $135 IPO price.
Lead
Evercore ISI raised its price target on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) to $275 from $230 on Friday, October 16, citing faster growth in the company's computing capacity. SPCX shares rose about 1% in premarket trading to roughly $150. That is about 11% above the $135 per share at which the stock was priced in June.What Did Evercore ISI Change in Its SpaceX Forecasts?
Evercore ISI raised its compute and earnings estimates, which drove the higher target. The firm expects SpaceX to bring 2.3 gigawatts of compute online by the end of 2026, with potential to reach 2.7 gigawatts. The Street estimate is 2.2 gigawatts.
For 2027, the firm raised its compute forecast to 6.5 gigawatts from 5.7 gigawatts. That is also above the Street estimate of 6.1 gigawatts.
The earnings outlook moved in the same direction. Evercore ISI now models 2029 adjusted EBITDA of $266 billion, up from $210 billion. It projects SpaceX will exit 2026 with $104 billion in annual recurring revenue.
Why Is the Valuation Multiple Lower Despite the Higher Target?
The target rose even though the valuation multiple fell. The firm applies a blended enterprise value-to-EBITDA multiple of 15.3 times, down from 16.6 times. Enterprise value-to-EBITDA compares a company's total value, including debt, with its operating earnings. The lower multiple reflects a selloff in AI-related stocks. The $275 target therefore rests on higher forecast earnings, not on a richer valuation.
How Has SPCX Traded Since the IPO?
SPCX has traded above its offer price for most of the period since its June listing. SpaceX raised $75 billion in a record-setting offering at $135 per share, at a valuation of about $1.77 trillion. The stock opened its first session at $150 and closed at $161, a gain of 19%, which put its market value near $2.1 trillion.
Shares later slipped below the IPO price for several weeks before recovering above $135 in August. The premarket level near $150 compares with a consensus 12-month target of about $221, so the new Evercore ISI figure sits well above the average.
Why Does Compute Capacity Matter to the SpaceX Story?
Compute capacity has become a central driver of SpaceX's growth case, alongside its launch and satellite businesses. Gigawatts of computing power determine how much AI workload the company can host and sell. Capacity ahead of expectations feeds directly into recurring revenue and, in turn, long-dated EBITDA. That link explains why a 0.1 to 0.8 gigawatt gap against consensus can move a valuation model.
The sensitivity also runs the other way. AI infrastructure names have been volatile, and the lower multiple in the Evercore ISI model shows how sector sentiment feeds into targets even when operating forecasts improve.
How to Buy SpaceX Stock
Outlook
The next test for SpaceX's compute buildout is whether it reaches the 2.3 gigawatts Evercore ISI expects by year-end. Quarterly results will show whether recurring revenue is tracking toward the $104 billion exit rate. Until then, SPCX will respond to both company-specific updates and swings in sentiment toward AI infrastructure stocks. The shares are roughly 11% above their IPO price and well below the new $275 target.
