Iran Tells Hezbollah to Raise Readiness as Oil Tops $105

Iran has told Hezbollah to raise combat readiness as Washington weighs the MOAB bomb, keeping Brent above $105 and Gulf oil supply under growing threat.

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Iran has instructed Hezbollah to move its forces to a higher state of readiness, according to directives reported by Lebanese and Israeli media on October 15. The message was that an American attack is a matter of time and the group should be prepared. The move comes as US military planners have drawn up new strike options that include the GBU-43 "Mother of All Bombs", the largest non-nuclear weapon in the American arsenal. Brent crude for December delivery settled at $105.92 a barrel, about 14 cents lower on the day, after trading above $106 a session earlier.

What Did Iran Tell Hezbollah?

Iran told Hezbollah to elevate its readiness to advanced levels, treating a resumption of US military action as likely rather than possible. The Revolutionary Guards and Tehran's leadership have concluded that renewed fighting is a question of when, not if.

Hezbollah is reported to be decentralizing command so field units can operate if contact with senior leaders is cut. The change borrows from Iran's "mosaic defense" doctrine and is meant to blunt Israeli strikes aimed at the group's leadership. The group treats the instructions as preparation for a near-term scenario, not a final decision to enter a wider war. Hezbollah has continued to claim attacks on Israeli soldiers in northern Israel.

Why Is the "Mother of All Bombs" Back in the Discussion?

The weapon is back because US planners have prepared new attack plans that could use it against Iranian energy infrastructure and nuclear facilities if President Donald Trump orders operations to resume. The 21,600-pound airburst munition is designed to affect surface targets over a wide area. It was last used in Afghanistan in 2017 and has not been deployed in earlier US strikes inside Iran.

Trump has said the United States will not attack Iran before the midterm elections on November 3, citing "productive discussions" with Tehran. He has also ruled out a nuclear strike. The planning described above covers a resumption either before or after the vote. Tehran has said American bombs will not force it to surrender.

Geopolitical Dimension

The US and Israel launched military action against Iran on February 28, 2026, and the conflict has since spread across several fronts. Hezbollah's northern Israel front adds to pressure from Houthi attacks on Saudi targets. On October 14, a Houthi strike hit an administrative building belonging to Saudi Aramco (2222.SR) in Dhahran.

The Strait of Hormuz remains the central economic channel. Iranian attacks on commercial shipping have cut transits sharply, and a Singapore-registered vessel was sunk in the strait this week. Hormuz clearance averaged 11.62 million barrels a day over the seven days to October 13, about 68% of the 17.15 million barrel baseline.

How Are Oil Markets Reacting?

Oil markets are pricing a persistent risk premium, with Brent holding above $105 and West Texas Intermediate near $98. WTI futures for November closed at $97.97, up about 3%, or $2.88, on the session. Brent settled at $105.92 after $106.06 on October 14, which was lifted by the Aramco attack. Brent reached roughly $109 earlier in the conflict.

Trump's pledge of no strikes before the midterms did little to calm trading. Traders weigh it against the planning for post-election action, continued attacks on shipping, and the Hezbollah directive. Offsetting forces include the prospect of the US easing limits on the so-called shadow fleet of tankers and further releases from emergency stockpiles.

Consumers are already absorbing the cost. US regular gasoline averaged about $4.36 a gallon in early October, roughly 45% above its level on February 28, while diesel stood near $6.28, up about 70%. Diesel and heating oil have been the most sensitive to Hormuz disruption.

What Comes Next for the Crude Oil Price?

The next leg for the crude oil price depends on three variables: Hormuz transit volumes, the direction of US-Iran contacts before November 3, and whether Hezbollah's heightened posture becomes a second active front against Israel.

• Contained scenario: Contacts continue and no strikes occur before the election. Hormuz flows recover gradually from 68% of baseline, and Brent drifts toward the low $100s.
• Escalation scenario: Strikes on Iranian energy or nuclear sites after the vote, or a major Hezbollah offensive, would likely send Brent back toward or beyond the roughly $109 high. Iranian retaliation against Gulf infrastructure would add to that.
• Policy response: Further stockpile releases and easier shadow fleet rules could cap rallies, though they do not replace lost Hormuz capacity.

Over a 3 to 12 month horizon, insurers, shipowners and refiners are likely to treat Hormuz as a structurally higher-risk route. That would keep freight and war-risk costs elevated even if a ceasefire holds.

Outlook

Iran's instruction to Hezbollah signals that Tehran expects fighting to resume and wants its regional network positioned for it. With US plans on the table, including the MOAB option, the window between now and November 3 is a pause rather than a resolution. Brent above $105, Hormuz flows near two-thirds of normal and fuel prices well above February levels leave energy markets exposed to any breakdown in the current restraint.