Eli Lilly stock hits record $1,311 before Q3 earnings

Eli Lilly (LLY) shares hit a record near $1,311 after Goldman raised its target to $1,413, a day after BofA, ahead of its Oct. 29 third-quarter report.

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What Happened to Eli Lilly Stock?

Lilly shares climbed to a record intraday level above $1,311 on the back of back-to-back target increases from two large Wall Street banks. The rally lifted the company's market capitalization to about $1.17 trillion, ahead of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) at roughly $1.14 trillion.

Pharmaceutical peers rose in sympathy. Merck (MRK) gained about 2.8% in the same session, a sign the buying extended beyond Lilly alone.

Why Did Goldman and BofA Raise Their Lilly Targets?

Both banks raised their targets because they expect Lilly's obesity and diabetes franchise to keep outrunning forecasts. Goldman expects another third-quarter earnings beat and a higher full-year outlook. It cites stronger-than-consensus sales growth for Mounjaro outside the United States and volume gains for Zepbound, supported by Medicare's GLP-1 Bridge program.

The new targets imply roughly 36 times forward earnings. At current prices the stock trades near 33 times, below its five-year average of about 40 times and well under the 67 times peak reached in October 2023. Of the 31 analysts covering the company, 26 carry a Buy or Strong Buy rating.

What Did Lilly Report in the Second Quarter?

Lilly's second-quarter 2026 revenue was $23.0 billion, up 48% from a year earlier, and the company raised its full-year guidance. Reported earnings per share were $7.94, up 26%, and non-GAAP EPS was $8.38, up 33%.

Product sales were led by:

• Mounjaro: $9.9 billion, up 91%.
• Zepbound: $4.9 billion, up 46%.
• Foundayo, the company's oral GLP-1 for obesity: $98 million in its first quarter on the market.

Lilly raised 2026 revenue guidance to $85 billion to $87 billion from $82 billion to $85 billion. Non-GAAP EPS guidance is $35.50 to $36.50, a range that absorbs $3.03 per share of acquired in-process research and development charges tied to deals announced during the quarter.

What Should Investors Watch in the Oct. 29 Report?

The Oct. 29 release will test whether Lilly can again beat forecasts and lift guidance. Consensus calls for third-quarter revenue of roughly $22.1 billion to $22.5 billion, about 26% above the year-earlier period, and EPS near $7.11. Full-year revenue estimates stand near $88.5 billion, against $65.2 billion in 2025, which would put the company above the top of its current guidance range.

Three items will draw the most attention:

• Combined Zepbound and Mounjaro sales, the largest drivers of revenue.
• Foundayo uptake, the first full quarter of a launch that matters for the oral obesity market.
• Pricing: Lilly's agreement with the White House to sell Zepbound and its oral GLP-1 at lower prices to U.S. patients, and its direct-to-patient pricing for multi-dose Zepbound pens, are headwinds that guidance already reflects.

Growth is expected to slow from this pace. Consensus sees revenue rising about 15% in 2027, and a path toward roughly $115 billion by 2028.

Market Reaction and Valuation Context

The rally leaves Lilly with a premium to the broader pharmaceutical group but a lower multiple than its own history. The gap between the stock and the new bank targets is under 10%, so much of the earnings optimism is already in the price. A guidance raise is largely expected, which raises the bar for the quarter.

Outlook

Lilly enters its Oct. 29 report at a record high, a trillion-dollar-plus valuation and a steady run of target increases. Second-quarter results showed revenue up 48% and a raised forecast. The focus now moves to whether Mounjaro, Zepbound and the Foundayo launch deliver another beat, and whether management lifts the $85 billion to $87 billion revenue range again.