Chapter 4: Duration & Convexity (Gentle)
Chapter 4: Duration & Convexity (Gentle)
When you own a bond, two things change its value: the passage of time (which inexorably brings you closer to maturity and coupon payments) and movements in interest rates (which change how much other investors will pay for those future cash flows).
Duration and convexity are the tools that quantify these effects. Duration tells you how much a bond's price changes when rates move. Convexity tells you why that relationship isn't perfectly straight-line—why longer-duration bonds benefit more from falling rates than they lose from rising rates, a phenomenon that has shaped bond markets for decades.
This chapter builds from first principles. We start by asking: what does it mean to "wait" for a bond's cash flows, and how long is the average wait? That's duration. We explore three equivalent views of duration—as a time-weighted average, as interest rate sensitivity, and as a formula—showing that all three perspectives describe the same economic reality.
Then we examine the relationships that drive duration: how coupon size, maturity length, and yield levels all pull duration in different directions. We show why a high-coupon bond feels less risky than a low-coupon bond of the same maturity (shorter duration), and why a bond's sensitivity to rates isn't simply "how many years until maturity?"
Finally, we introduce convexity—the subtle but powerful curvature in the price-yield relationship that emerges from the mathematics of discounting. Convexity is why an investor prefers bonds to many other assets in uncertain rate environments: it's free optionality.
This chapter assumes you understand bond basics (coupon, maturity, yield to maturity, the inverse price-yield relationship) and are ready to move beyond intuition into the quantitative foundation of bond analysis. By the end, you'll have the conceptual and mathematical tools that professional bond managers use daily to measure risk, construct portfolios, and exploit opportunities.
What's in this chapter
📄️ What Is Duration?
Duration measures how long you wait for your bond's cash flows, weighted by payment timing and size.
📄️ Macaulay Duration
The original (1938) measure of bond duration: time-weighted present value of all cash flows.
📄️ Modified Duration
Macaulay duration adjusted for yield changes; estimates the percentage price change per 1% change in yield.
📄️ Effective Duration
Duration measure for bonds with embedded options (callable, putable); calculated numerically rather than formulaically.
📄️ Duration as Time-Weighted Average
Understanding duration as the weighted average time to receive all a bond's cash flows.
📄️ Duration as Price Sensitivity
Duration as a measure of how much bond prices change when interest rates move—the trader's perspective.
📄️ Duration of a Zero-Coupon Bond
Zero-coupon bonds have the simplest duration: it equals maturity, since all cash comes at one moment.
📄️ Duration of Coupon Bonds
Coupon bonds have duration shorter than maturity because interim coupon payments reduce the weighted-average time to repayment.
📄️ Duration of a Bond Portfolio
Portfolio duration is the weighted average of individual bond durations by market value—a single number expressing interest rate sensitivity.
📄️ Duration and Coupon Relationship
Higher coupon bonds have shorter duration than lower-coupon bonds of the same maturity and yield.
📄️ Duration and Maturity Relationship
Duration increases with maturity, but not proportionally; longer maturities have increasing duration at a declining rate.
📄️ Duration and Yield Relationship
Higher yields reduce duration; lower yields increase duration—because present-value weights shift toward near-term cash flows at high yields.
📄️ Target Duration
Choosing a duration that matches your risk tolerance, income needs, and investment horizon.
📄️ Matching Liabilities
Aligning bond duration with specific financial obligations to eliminate unnecessary interest rate risk.
📄️ Immunisation
Locking in a specific return by matching duration to your time horizon, immune to interest rate changes.
📄️ What Is Convexity
The curvature of the price-yield relationship: why large rate moves produce bigger gains than losses.
📄️ Positive vs Negative
Why ordinary bonds reward you when rates fall, while callables and mortgages cap your gains.
📄️ Callable Bonds
Why corporations repay bonds when rates fall, capping your gains and leaving you with reinvestment risk.
📄️ Mortgage Prepayment
How homeowner refinancing creates negative convexity: gains are capped when rates fall, losses amplified when they rise.
📄️ Convexity Formula
The mathematics of bond price changes: duration plus convexity equals accurate prediction.
📄️ Duration & Convexity
How duration and convexity work together to predict bond prices accurately in real markets.
📄️ Portfolio Management
Adjusting portfolio duration via fund swaps, futures, or tactical overlays to respond to changing rates and opportunities.
📄️ When Duration Misleads
Situations where duration alone fails to predict bond returns: yield curve shifts, credit spreads, and embedded options.
📄️ Cheat Sheet
One-page quick reference for duration, convexity, and how to use them in practice.
How to read it
Start with "What Is Duration?" if you're new to the concept. It establishes the intuition: duration is when you get your money back, weighted by cash flow size and timing.
Move through "Macaulay Duration" and "Modified Duration" if you want the mathematical foundations. Macaulay duration is the original 1938 measure; modified duration adjusts it for the yield effect, producing the direct price-sensitivity formula traders use.
The middle section ("Duration as Time-Weighted Average," "Duration as Price Sensitivity," "Effective Duration") offers different perspectives on the same calculation. All describe duration; each perspective illuminates a different use case. Professional investors naturally shift between them.
The final section—"Zero-Coupon," "Coupon Bonds," "Portfolio," and the three "Relationships" articles—explores how duration varies with bond characteristics. This is where you'll develop intuition for why a high-coupon bond reacts differently to rates than a low-coupon bond, why 30-year bonds don't have 30-year duration, and how portfolio managers construct specific interest rate exposures.
If you're in a hurry, "What Is Duration?" plus one of the "Relationships" articles gives you the core concepts. If you're building a professional toolkit, read the entire chapter sequentially; each builds on earlier material.
Duration is universal across all bond types—Treasuries, corporates, municipals, high-yield, international bonds. Once you master it here, you can apply the same concepts to any fixed-income instrument.