ADR and Occupancy by Market

A financial model is only as sound as its input assumptions. ADR and occupancy vary wildly by city, neighborhood, and season. Miami Beach and Des Moines are both real-estate markets, but one commands $280 nightly with 78% occupancy year-round while the other struggles at $85 nightly with 50% occupancy. Before purchasing an STR property, you must validate that your modeled ADR and occupancy are grounded in market reality, not wishful thinking. This article covers the tools and interpretation methods.

Key takeaways

• ADR (average daily rate) across US STRs ranges from $70 (rural, weak markets) to $400+ (major tourist cities, peak seasons). The national median is $130–160.
• Occupancy rates span 35–80% depending on market maturity, seasonality, and property type. Urban core markets sustain 70%+; seasonal destinations swing 20–80% seasonally; weak markets plateau at 40–50%.
• AirDNA, Mashvisor, and Rabbu aggregate platform data into market reports, neighborhood breakdowns, and historical trends. AirDNA is the most granular and trusted; Mashvisor offers lower-cost entry; Rabbu specializes in multi-platform feeds.
• Free data is available but coarse—Airbnb's map view shows prices, but not occupancy; neighborhood surveys give ranges, not certainties. Paid tools cost $100–500/month but eliminate guesswork and pay for themselves with a single property decision.
• Market data lags reality by 4–8 weeks. Seasonal peaks are visible, but unexpected downturns (recession, regulatory changes, pandemic) materialize faster than reporting catches up.

ADR and occupancy ranges by market type

Tier 1: Major tourist cities (Miami, New Orleans, Las Vegas, Cancun, Mexico City):

• ADR: $200–350 (high season); $120–180 (low season)
• Occupancy: 75–85% (year-round, minor dips)
• Characteristics: International tourism, large hospitality demand, dense supply of listings
• Risk: Over-supplied in some neighborhoods; regulatory scrutiny in high-profile areas

Tier 2: Secondary cities + college towns (Nashville, Austin, Denver, Portland, Boston):

• ADR: $130–200 (high season); $100–130 (low season)
• Occupancy: 65–75% (year-round average)
• Characteristics: Domestic tourism, professional relocations, weekend leisure travel
• Risk: Maturing markets; competitive pressure increasing ADR compression over 5-year windows

Tier 3: Seasonal destinations (ski towns, beach markets, music festival hubs):

• ADR: $150–400+ (peak season); $50–100 (off-season)
• Occupancy: 80%+ (peak); 20–40% (off-season)
• Characteristics: Highly concentrated demand windows; zero occupancy possible during off-season
• Risk: Severe cash flow volatility; property must absorb 6–9 months of negative cash flow or you manage seasonal closures

Tier 4: Suburban and weak markets (Omaha, Des Moines, rural areas, secondary towns):

• ADR: $70–110
• Occupancy: 40–55%
• Characteristics: Limited tourism, weak relocation demand, generic properties compete on price alone
• Risk: Insufficient revenue to cover meaningful debt service or management costs

Using AirDNA for validated market insights

AirDNA (airdna.co) is the gold standard. The platform aggregates anonymized Airbnb and VRBO booking data—nightly rates, occupancy, revenue—for millions of listings. You search by zip code, neighborhood, or property type to see:

• Occupancy: 30, 60, and 90-day rolling averages + year-over-year change
• ADR: Seasonal breakdown with peak/shoulder/off-season definitions
• Revenue: Monthly and annual gross revenue for similar properties
• Trend: Historical view of ADR and occupancy over 1–3 years (paid plans only)
• Property type: Filtered by bedrooms, entire home vs. shared room, luxury tier

Example AirDNA report (Downtown Miami, 2-bedroom entire home):

Current ADR:         $245
30-day rolling occ:  78%
Annual occup avg:    76%
Monthly revenue:     $18,200 (avg)
YoY revenue growth:  +4.2%

From this data, you can project:

$245 ADR × 0.76 occupancy × 365 = $67,628 annual gross revenue

Compare this to your property's purchase price. If you're paying $500,000 for this 2-bedroom, gross revenue is 13.5% of purchase price—low leverage. You're betting on appreciation or accept 10+ years of modest cash flow.

AirDNA pricing: Free trial (limited data), $99/month (single city), $299/month (multi-city), $499/month (analyst package with API access).

Mashvisor and Rabbu: alternatives and complements

Mashvisor (mashvisor.com) offers similar occupancy and ADR data at a lower price point ($0–99/month). The interface is more consumer-friendly; visualizations are clearer. Data is slightly less granular—neighborhoods are broader, historical trends are shorter. Good for initial validation; many investors use Mashvisor for discovery, then validate with AirDNA before purchase.

Rabbu (rabbu.com) specializes in multi-platform data (Airbnb + VRBO + Booking.com + Furnished Finder). If your STR targets extended-stay or corporate segments, Rabbu's Furnished Finder integration is valuable. Monthly pricing is $39–99 depending on property count.

Free alternatives:

1. Airbnb map view: Load your target neighborhood on Airbnb, switch to map mode. Filter for entire homes, 1–2 bedrooms, entire year availability. Manually note nightly rates. Collect 20–30 samples. Average the high-season and low-season rates. This is free but labor-intensive and captures only listed properties, not occupancy.

2. Neighborhood manual survey: Post on local real-estate Facebook groups, Reddit communities, or reach out to existing STR operators in the area. Ask directly: "What occupancy did you see in 2023?" Operators love sharing war stories; you'll get candid feedback. Free but anecdotal.

3. Public STR licenses / permit data: Some cities publish STR registrations, including addresses and rental rates. NYC's short-term rental registry, New Orleans' STR permits, and California's registration data are public. Search your state's assessor or tourism board for available datasets.

Interpreting market data: red flags and opportunities

Red flag: High ADR, low occupancy. Example: $200 ADR, 45% occupancy. This might indicate a seasonal market (valid) or an overpriced property (invalid). Dig deeper: Is the listing new? Does it have poor reviews? Are competitors' prices aligned? A new property might take 6 months to stabilize; an overpriced one will never sell bookings, and you'll waste 12 months learning the hard way.

Red flag: ADR compression over time. AirDNA shows ADR declining $20–30/year for 3 consecutive years. This signals market saturation—too many new listings chasing the same guest pool. Proceed only if you have an operational edge (superior reviews, unique amenities, marketing sophistication).

Opportunity: High occupancy, rising ADR. Example: 72% occupancy, ADR up $10–15 YoY. Market demand is outpacing supply. New listings fill calendars quickly. Entry point is narrow—prices rise fast—but fundamentals are sound.

Opportunity: Seasonal arbitrage. Off-season ADR is $80, but you identify a niche (winter sports enthusiasts, spring-break groups, reunions) that can sustain $140+ ADR in a typically slow month. You price aggressively for that niche and capture a 60% occupancy rate in an off-season month that normally sees 25%. This requires targeted marketing and operational excellence, but the upside is outsized.

Market data limitations and timing

Market data is backward-looking. AirDNA reports data with a 4–6 week lag. If you're analyzing in May 2026, the data reflects early April bookings. By the time you close on a property in July 2026, market conditions may have shifted—recession fears rising, new competitors entering, regulatory news breaking.

Secular trends (changes unfolding over quarters or years) are visible in AirDNA's historical data. Cyclical shifts (monthly swings, pandemic-scale disruptions) appear with lag or surprise.

Defensive approach: Use 12-month rolling averages, not current-month snapshots. Model three scenarios:

• Base case: Current market fundamentals (e.g., $140 ADR, 65% occupancy)
• Downside: 15% reduction (e.g., $119 ADR, 55% occupancy)
• Upside: 15% improvement (e.g., $161 ADR, 75% occupancy)

If your deal depends on upside, it's speculative. If base case supports your debt service, you have margin for error.

Comparing market data to your specific property

Market data aggregates thousands of listings. Your property is singular. Factors that affect your occupancy and ADR:

• Location within neighborhood: $50–100 ADR difference between prime walkability and off-the-beaten-path locations.
• Property condition: New renovations command 10–20% ADR premium; dated properties underperform market average.
• Amenities: Pool, hot tub, workspace, parking, washer/dryer, fully stocked kitchen—each adds 5–15% to ADR.
• Reviews and rating: Properties with 4.9+ rating and 100+ reviews sustain higher occupancy and ADR. New properties (0–20 reviews) underperform market average for 6–12 months.
• Operational quality: Responsive hosts, fast check-in/out, clean turnover—these are reflected in reviews and booking velocity.

Rule of thumb: Expect your property to perform at market average (AirDNA baseline) within 12–18 months if you execute well, or 20–30% below market if you're learning operationally. Avoid assuming you'll outperform market from day one.

Market data for different property types

Not all STRs are comparable. A luxury beachfront condo, a family-friendly suburban home, and a downtown urban apartment each occupy different niches.

Property Type	Typical ADR Range	Typical Occupancy	Best Data Source
Luxury beach/ski	$300–600	70–80%	AirDNA luxury tier
Urban 1BR downtown	$120–180	70–75%	AirDNA city center
Suburban 3BR family	$100–160	55–70%	Mashvisor (broader neighborhoods)
Long-term furnished	$100–150 monthly	85–95%	Rabbu (Furnished Finder focus)

Filter your market data by comparable property type, not neighborhood alone. A downtown luxury condo's $280 ADR doesn't tell you anything about a suburban 3-bedroom's $110 baseline.

Market analysis flowchart

Related concepts

• ./03-str-financial-modeling.md
• ./05-seasonality-and-revenue-management.md

Next

Market data provides the foundation; seasonal dynamics reveal the complexity. A property that performs at 75% occupancy in winter might slide to 40% in summer, or vice versa. Understanding your market's seasonality pattern—and how to respond with dynamic pricing—is the difference between steady income and feast-or-famine cash flow. We'll cover revenue management and seasonal pricing tools in the next article.