Pairs trading
Pairs trading is a market-neutral strategy of simultaneously taking a long position in one stock and a short position in a related stock, betting that the two will converge in relative value. By hedging one stock against another, the pairs trader removes market risk, leaving only the relative-value bet.
For broader statistical arbitrage, see statistical arbitrage. For short-selling mechanics, see short-selling. For relative-value strategies, see merger arbitrage.
How pairs trading works
The setup:
Two related stocks — perhaps two automakers, two retailers, or two airlines — are typically correlated. If one moves 10%, the other usually moves 8–9%. However, at times, one becomes relatively overvalued compared to the other.
The trade:
- Identify mispricing. Stock A is trading at 12x earnings; Stock B (similar company) is trading at 15x earnings. Stock B is relatively expensive.
- Long the cheap stock. Buy Stock A at $50.
- Short the expensive stock. Short Stock B at $75.
- Size for hedge. If the beta relationship is 1:1, equal dollar amounts. If B is more volatile, size accordingly.
- Wait for convergence. Stock A rallies to $52; Stock B falls to $73. The relative value gap has narrowed.
- Exit. Close both positions, capturing the convergence profit.
The math: If Stock A gains $2 and Stock B loses $2, the gross profit is $4 on your combined position, regardless of whether the market rallied or crashed.
Advantages
- Market-neutral. A bear market that crashes 30% affects both stocks similarly; the hedge is intact.
- Lower volatility. By removing market risk, the portfolio volatility is lower than holding the long position alone.
- Identifies mispricing. Pairs traders must find genuine relative-value divergences, requiring deep fundamental or quantitative analysis.
Challenges
- Convergence may fail. The cheap stock may get cheaper; the expensive stock may get more expensive. The divergence can persist for years.
- Execution costs. Going long one stock and short another incurs two sets of transaction costs.
- Short-selling risk. Shorting is risky — unlimited loss potential. A short position in Stock B that rallies 20% against the hedge can cause significant losses.
- Correlation breaks. The historical correlation between the two stocks may break (one may face unique challenges; sector rotation may favor one). The hedge fails.
- Margin and borrow costs. Short-selling requires margin and borrow costs (lending fees), eroding profits.
See also
Closely related
- Statistical arbitrage — quantified pairs and multi-leg strategies
- Merger arbitrage — specific pairs bet on deal completion
- Short-selling — the short-position mechanics
- Market neutral — the overall approach
- Quantitative investing — methodology
Wider context
- Stock — the underlying instruments
- Correlation — the relationship metric
- Beta — market sensitivity
- Hedge fund — typical venue for pairs trading